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July weather

Current view


04/07/2017

Summer's finest?

The June Central England Temperature (CET) was 1.9C above the average. In large part that was due to the mid month heat wave which brought the hottest June day since 1976. 34.5C (94F) was recorded at Heathrow, London on the 21st.

It was also a very wet month in much of the country. Parts of southern and eastern Scotland recorded 300% the average amount of rain but in the Midlands and the south east rainfall totals were close to the norm.

What will July bring? St Swithin's Day falls on the 15th and folk law says whatever the weather is like on that day, it will continue for the next 40 days and nights. Although the saying is not literally correct there is possibly an element of truth in it because by this time of the year the summer weather patterns are established.

Sunflowers

July forecast and current view

The headline from the TWO monthly forecast issued on 1st July is for a better than average month Temperatures are forecast to be above the average and rainfall amounts close to or slightly below. Does the latest forecast data support this?

Ensemble models are pointing towards quite a changeable picture during the next couple of weeks but a north to south split is expected. In the south there is a greater chance of dry and warm spells with wet periods more likely in the north. The London 850hPa temperature and rainfall ensemble plot below shows hot conditions in the short term but by the weekend cooler air returns. As we head into the middle of July the most probable outcome is for temperatures to be close to or slightly above average in the south and cooler in the north. A minority of computer model runs show the heat reloading next week and that is a possibility we will keep an eye on. There is the likelihood of storms this week but thereafter it looks quite dry in the south but wetter in the north.

GEFS06z 850hPa temperatures and rainfall, July 2017

 

Second half of July

At this stage the TWO view for the second half of the month is that it will generally be drier and warmer than average. See the monthly forecast update for more information.

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