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Glastonbury 2017 takes place between June 21st and 25th so well within range of the 16 day deterministic and probability (or ensemble) weather forecasts. When looking more than about 5 days ahead the probability forecasts help to assess confidence levels. So what is the data showing?
The GEFS ensemble plot for Glastonbury generated on Saturday 17th June is showing a lot of dry and very warm in the short term. By the 22nd June a few rainfall spikes appear and this indicates a risk of it becoming more changeable. Nonetheless a large number of the individual model runs keep predominantly dry weather in place throughout the festival period.
The majority of runs show air mass values in the +12C to +17C range between now and the 22nd June. Down at the ground those would probably translate to temperatures of between 27C and 32C if the sun shines. So it could be a hot start, but cloud cover the temperatures would keep it cooler despite the very warm air mass. Between 22nd and 25th June cooler air is shown returning and the transition could lead to an increased risk of showers or downpours.
The forecast details for the Glastonbury Festival are still uncertain. Computer models suggest the possibility of a hot start followed by cooler conditions. It could also become more changeable but many model runs favour mostly dry weather. However the risk of downpours can't be discounted.
16 day Glastonbury ensemble forecast
16 day Glastonbury deterministic forecast
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