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June outlook

Improving weather


06/06/2017

Return of the westerlies

The early part of June has brought very wet and unsettled weather with areas of low pressure pushing in from the Atlantic. The early part of the summer often brings spells of rain to the UK and is sometimes called the European Monsoon or return of the westerlies. After a tendency for Atlantic winds to moderate in late spring they often become more vigorous again at this time of the yer. This is thought to be in part due to the surface heating of the European landmass. which occurs as temperatures rise. Therefore a poor start to June doesn't necessarily suggest a washout summer.  

Stonehenge

By by simonwakefield [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

June forecast

The TWO monthly forecast issued on 30th May is for June to be a changeable month with slightly above average temperatures over the period as a whole. This remains our expectation after the first six days. 

In the short term unsettled weather continues and all areas have further showers or longer spells of rain. Next week there are indications of high pressure becoming more influential and leads to an increasing chance of drier conditions in the south at least. Temperatures could also rise as warm air from the continent begins to filter back into the south east towards the middle of the month.

The postage stamp chart below is from the GEFS06z run on Tuesday 6th June. and it shows forecast pressure patterns from each model run on Monday 19th June. The stamps are varied which suggests uncertainty, but a lot of them have high pressure close to the UK.

GEFS06z postage stamp pressure charts

During the last third of June the rather mixed picture probably continues but some drier and warmer periods probably develop.

Summary

Despite the unsettled start to June there are signs of a things improving towards the middle of the month. The chance of more settled weather increases as high pressure begins to have more influence on the UK's weather. Nonetheless a mixed month is forecast with above average rainfall and sightly above average temperatures.

See the monthly forecast update for more information. 

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