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May Day weather

Bank Holiday outlook


25/04/2017

Overview

The May Day Bank Holiday is on the 1st May this year. The run up is expected to bring a late taste of winter, but at this time of the year the weather can change quickly. Can we expect summer to return for the Bank Holiday weekend?

Bluebells on Ashridge near Berkhamsted

May Day weather forecast

Medium range computer models suggest a mixed outlook for late April and early May. The charts below are from the GEFS00z update, Tuesday 25th April 2017. The GEFS ensemble helps to identify the probabilities of different weather outcomes. It works by running the same computer model 20 times and varying the starting conditions each time to help account for uncertainty.

Maximum temperature spread forecast

The postage stamp plot shows the forecast temperatures from each GEFS model run on the afternoon of Monday 1st May.

Key points:

By the Bank Holiday weekend temperatures are expected to have recovered from their current low values. However, it could still be on the chilly side for early May. Most of the individual stamps suggest maximum temperatures in the south will be between the lower to mid teens celsius on May Day. In the north it is expected to be cooler.

GEFS May Day maximum temperatures

Precipitation spread forecast

The postage stamp plot below shows the forecast precipitation from each GEFS model run on the afternoon of Monday 1st May.

Key points:

The majority of the individual stamps suggest wet weather in parts of the UK. The trend in recent days has been towards a more unsettled Bank Holiday weekend. Heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain are possible on Sunday and Monday.

GEFS May Day precipitation

 

Summarising the forecast data

The latest forecast data points to mixed and changeable weather, but the forecast details are still uncertain. On balance we consider:

1) Showers or longer spells of rain probably will affect much of the UK during the three day period.

2) Temperatures recover from their current values but they may still be disappointing, although during sunny spells it will feel pleasantly warm.

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