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Easter weather

2017 weather forecast


12/04/2017

Late Easter this year

Easter Sunday falls on April 16th this year. March has been a mild month and it looks as though early April will bring reasonable temperatures. By mid-April the rapidly lengthening days and strengthening sun can bring genuinely warm weather, but wintry conditions remain possible. In late April 1981 a cold spell brought heavy snow to much of the UK.

Easter scene

Easter eggs amsterdam" by Rotemdan - Own work. Licensed under Attribution via Wikimedia Commons

Easter weather outlook

Data from the medium range computer models is pointing towards a mixed Easter weekend. There is some uncertainty about the details and the extent to which high pressure will be influencing the weather. 

The charts below are from the GEFS06z, Wednesday 12th April. They show forecast temperatures and rainfall for Easter Sunday. GEFS is an ensemble computer model which helps identify the likelihood of different weather outcomes. The key things to note are: 

1) It isn't looking particularly warm. Maximum daytime temperatures will probably range from 12C (54F) and 16C (61F) in the south and 8C (46F) to 10C (52F) in the north.

2) There is quite a high risk of showers or longer spells of rain in the north. In the south there should be a good deal of dry weather, but even there some showers are possible.

At this time of the year temperatures drop markedly during showers so it will feel cold if you catch one, and over high ground in the north snow is a possibility. The nights are likely to be chilly, and in areas where clear periods develop frosts are possible.

 

GEFS06z Easter Sunday temperature forecast

GEFS 06z maximum temperature forecast for Easter Sunday

 

GEFS06z Easter Sunday rain forecast

GEFS 06z precipitation forecast for Easter Sunday

 

Summary

The latest indications suggest a mixed Easter. Spells of rain are likely in the north but the south should have a good deal of dry weather. Nighttime frosts are possible. High pressure may increasingly influence the weather, so by Easter Monday showers could become isolated.  

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