News and information

Grand National 2017

Weather prospects


04/04/2017

Overview

The 2017 Randox Health Grand National festival at Aintree begins on Thursday 6th April and the big race itself is run at 17:15 on Saturday 8th April. The weather can have a big impact on proceedings, to a large extent it determines what the going will be like and individual horses may prefer particular conditions.

Horse racing

By Paul (Finishing Post At Aintree) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

What's the latest forecast?

Computer models show mostly dry and fine weather for the Aintree festival. The charts below are from today's GEFS00z model and are valid for Saturday 8th April. The GEFS helps to identify the probabilities of different weather outcomes by running the same computer model a number of times. Each instance has slightly different starting data to see how sensitive the outcome is to minor changes.

The key things the plots show for Grand National day are:

1) All runs show mild or pleasantly warm temperatures. The values on the individual runs range from about 14C (57F) to 17C (63F).

2) The risk of showers or more persistent spells of rain is ver low.

Temperature postage stamp plot

GEFS06z temperatures

Precipitation postage stamp plot

GEFS06z precipitation

 

Summary and forecast links

Computer model data suggests the Aintree Festival will be predominantly dry and mild or quite warm. There is still time for the details to change so check the forecast links below for the very latest.

High resolution 3 day hour by hour (best for 0 to 3 days ahead).

3 day hourly weather forecast

16 day forecast for Aintree which updates every 6 hours (best for 4 to 7 days ahead).

16 day Aintree, Merseyside weather forecast

Those of you who want to follow things in more depth should follow the 16 day probability forecast for Liverpool which updates every 6 hours. This shows the range of outcomes the GEFS computer model considers possible (best for more than 7 days ahead).

16 day Liverpool region probability forecast

 

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