News and information

Spring 2017

Warmer than average


01/03/2017

Spring overview

The TWO 2017 spring forecast has been issued and the headline is for warmer than average conditions over the period as a whole. The meteorological spring which covers March, April and May often brings very varied weather to the UK. During the early part of the season wintry conditions are very possible, but as we head into May the first hot weather of the year can develop.

Spring scene

Warmer than average

After another milder than average winter can we expect early spring warmth? Signals from long range forecast models and recent trends suggest temperatures are more likely to be above than below average. In the shorter term though things look quite chilly, and during the first half of March snow is likely in the north of the UK. The rest of the month is expected to be predominantly unsettled but perhaps milder.

As we head through April and May the forecast suggests above average temperatures and close to average rainfall levels. ENSO conditions are expected to be neutral which means they will have little impact on the UK's weather. The expected set-up suggests mixed weather, but with a good chance of some fine and warm spells developing late on, especially during May.

Summary

A warmer than average spring is expected with slightly above average rainfall. The expected set-up suggests an increased chance of some genuinely warm weather developing as we head through May. Nonetheless it is important to remember seasonal forecasts in the UK are issued with low confidence levels attached.

Seasonal forecast

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