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Storm Doris update

Thursday's weather bomb


22/02/2017

Storm Doris continues to look like a potent weather system which will bring severe weather to parts of the UK on Thursday. The central pressure of Storm Doris is expected to fall by over 24 millibars in a 24 hour period which is the key characteristic of a "weather bomb". Winds gusts could exceed 80mph locally and there will be a risk of heavy rain and snow too.

Latest wind gust forecasts

Computer models runs from last night and this morning show the risk of damaging wind gusts tomorrow. The charts below are generated using data from the Meteo France Arpege 00z simulation.

The first chart shows forecast wind gusts at 11:00am tomorrow. At this stage the worst conditions are affecting western regions with gusts of over 80mph locally.

Meteo France Arpege Storm Doris 1

 

By 1:00pm the area of strongest winds has moved southeastwards. Gusts of over 80mph are shown locally in central England. In London and the home counties gusts are around 60mph.

 

Meteo France Arpege Storm Doris 2

 

An hour later and the strongest winds are affecting East Anglia and the east Midlands. It's still windy in the west but by then the worst has passed.

 

Meteo France Arpege Storm Doris 3

 

The scenario which the Arpege model is showing is slightly worse than some of the other models. For example the American Global Forecast System (GFS) brings the storm system through slightly quicker and has gust speeds peaking just below 80mph. Although there are differences in the details there is good agreement for stormy conditions to affect densely populated parts of the UK tomorrow.

Disruption from rain and snow

As well as stormy winds there is the potential for rain and snow to add to the problems. A band of heavy rain pushing southeastwards through the first half of the day could lead to surface water and difficult driving conditions on the roads. In the north of the UK snow is likely to be a problem with blizzard conditions possible over high ground.

Summary

The latest computer model runs continue to suggest Storm Doris will bring severe weather to large parts of the country on Thursday 23rd February. 

1) Maximum wind gusts of between 70mph and 85mph in northern Wales, northern central England and northern England. Outside chance of 90mph being recorded.

2) Maximum wind gusts of between 50mph and 70mph in southern Wales, central southern England and southern England. The home counties and London could record gusts of around 60mph

3) A band of rain with heavy bursts mixed in sweeping southeastwards

4) Heavy rain in Scotland with blizzard conditions over high ground

The forecast details are still likely to change. The summary here is based on data from the 00z Arpege and GFS computer model runs on 22/02/2017. For more updates follow @TWOweather on Twitter.

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