Cheltenham festival

Playing the odds

Issued 06/03/2015

The 2015 Cheltenham Festival taking place from Tuesday 10th to Friday 13th March is one of the big horse racing events of the calendar. The weather can have a big impact on proceedings both in the run up to and during the event itself so what is it looking like?

Computer model runs are suggesting there could be some rain around on Sunday and Monday but this may not be too heavy with the wettest conditions farther north. Tuesday is currently looking dry with temperatures close to 10C (50F) which isn't far off the seasonal average.

Uncertainty increases through the middle of the week but Wednesday may be dry and very mild with unsettled weather remaining to the north. It's a similar picture on Thursday and Friday with above average temperatures.

By Paul Kehrer (Flickr: Win, Place, Show) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Forecast confidence for next week is relatively low so expect to see changes in the details as the time approaches. The link below takes you to the forecast which updates every 6 hours of the day bringing you the very latest view.

16 day Cheltenham weather forecast

Another link some of you may like to bookmark is the forecast for Aintree as the Grand National is also fast approaching. The link below takes you to the forecast.

16 day Aintree, Merseyside weather forecast

Play the odds?

Most horse racing fans will be familiar with probabilities and playing the odds. In many ways the same principles can be applied to weather forecasting.

The 16 day probability forecasts on the site show the latest predictions from 22 GFS and GEFS computer model runs. Each one of the GEFS runs has slightly different starting conditions to help account for uncertainty and to gauge confidence in different weather outcomes. 

The GEFS runs use a lower resolution forecast grid which means the output for Birmingham is the closest to Cheltenham on our site. The link below takes you to the probability forecast which also updates every 6 hours of the day. Good luck!

Birmingham probability forecast

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