Winter 2014/15

Seasonal forecast

Issued 18/11/2014

The TWO 2014/15 winter forecast covering December, January and February will be issued in late November. The discussion forecast is made freely available every year and is based on a number of inputs. These include:

1) Long range computer forecasting models
2) Pattern matching
3) Atlantic SSTs
4) ENSO and other teleconnections
5) Siberian snow cover
6) Solar activity
7) Stratospheric temperature forecasts
7) Weather patterns during recent seasons

As ever it's important to point out that because the UK is located on the border of several different air masses long range forecasts are generally considered to have a low skill level. 

As usual this year there has been a lot of speculation in the press about the possibility of a severe winter developing. Mention has been made of the polar vortex descending on UK bringing blizzards and severe cold. This despite all months so far in 2014 with the exception of August being warmer than average.

Perhaps if the polar vortex does descend scenes like the one below will be in the news this winter! Find out the TWO view by checking the seasonal forecast.

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