Winter 2014/15

Coldest for 100 years?

Issued 11/10/2014

It's mid October and as the nights rapidly draw in the discussion once again turns to the winter weather. Will there be a big freeze or can we expect a more typical damp and wet affair punctuated by shortish cold interludes?

At this stage no one can say with certainty. Seasonal forecast models do exist, but they still have a low skill level for our part of the world. A host of other factors are considered by forecasters ranging from sea surface temperatures and pressure patterns, right through to more esoteric ones such as the arrival of Wax Wing birds in the UK and the behaviour of squirrels!

Recent press reports have been talking about winter 2014/15 being the coldest for a century, but similar things seems to be said most years. Last autumn reports appeared warning us of an impending freeze but the winter which followed turned out to be one of the mildest, and the wettest on record in some regions! Much of lowland England saw no snow and barely a frost!.

Where does this leave things? At the moment 2014 is on course to be a very mild year with August being the only colder than average month. Sea surface temperatures around the UK favour a continuation of above average temperatures as we head towards Christmas, but obviously that's not certain.

If you'd like to read more keep an eye on Buzz for updates about the prospects. This Winter 2014/15 discussion issued on 10th October 2014 discuss things in a little more detail.

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