Cold winter on the way for the UK?

In Britain between 1991 and 2007 most winters were mild, but the last two years have brought a change, with 2009/10 bringing the coldest conditions since 1979 to many parts of the country. So a cold winter this year would mean the third in succession. Is it likely? As ever, long range forecasting is about identifying broad patterns and trends, and given this TheWeatherOutlook view is that a colder than average conditions are likely this winter.  However, the pattern which develops may be different this time, with the cold tending to come more from the east or south east rather than the north east. In this scenario the heaviest snow often occurs in the boundary zone between the cold dry air from the east, and the mild and moist air trying to push in from the Atlantic, but the cold can be most persistent in eastern regions. Our full and final winter forecast will be issued in late November as usual. Read the press release and initial winter prospects summary. Also follow TWO Buzz during the next few days as we discuss this further. 

Issued 18:25 24/10/2010