Summer 2014 weather

Introduction

The UK summer 2014 forecast will be issued in late May and made freely available on the site. As usual it will be based on a number of factors including recent weather patterns and seasonal forecast models. As ever there is a low degree of confidence when looking at the longer range weather outlook in the UK.

Latest thoughts

My view at this stage is the summer will be hard to call. In general the seasonal computer models don't look too bad taken at face value, and temperatures in recent months have been above average. The caveat is with significant pressure anomalies showing on some of the computer models we could easily end up with a significantly better or worse than average summer.

In the last few years the tendency has been for poor summers. Last year the trend was broken with spells of fine and very warm weather developing. In many ways the pattern was similar to what developed quite frequently during the 1990s and early 2000s. The mild winter which followed was also akin to that period.

So what about this year? I'll quickly run through a set of charts from the CFSv2 seasonal forecast model. Although there are daily updates to the charts the ones I've used here seem to be fairly representative of much of the output currently.

Jun 2014 - 500hPa pressure anomaly

Yellow over the UK shows a positive forecast pressure anomaly. The blue to the west shows a negative forecast pressure anomaly. If this was correct June could well be a pretty decent month for the UK with above average temperatures and below average rainfall.

July 2014 - 500hPa pressure anomaly

A similar picture to June but with everything perhaps backed a little further east. If this was correct it could again be warm or even very warm at times over the UK. The highest chance of hot weather in the east, with the Atlantic having more influence further west. Could be interesting if thunderstorms are your thing too.

By August the signals on the model are weaker with a positive pressure anomaly to the south east of the UK. This could indicate a decent month in the south with close to average conditions further north and west.

Summary

There's some interesting data around and patterns during recent seasons have brought some sharp anomalies from the average across the UK. So although a fairly average picture is possible I'd not be surprised if the summer turns out to be significantly better or worse. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for the warmer and drier outcome and you'll be able to read the summer 2014 seasonal forecast later this month. 

Issued 15/05/2014

Brian Gaze's blog

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