GFS Evaluation - Part 5

GFS evaluation experiment - Part 5
Down to t+48 hours ahead. At this range the details can still be changing, and indeed are!

12z charts generated on 18/09/2007

Temperature(C)

Rainfall rate (mm/hr)

Wind speed (km/hr) and direction

Finally, here's a link to an image showing the synoptic set up expected.
//www.theweatheroutlook.com/imagescopy/2007092012_12z_t48_synoptic.png

Summary
The general picture remains consistent with an unsettled flow across the UK. However, some significant differences are still showing up locally. The latest data has increased temperatures in many areas by 2C to 3C - quite a big amount and during the winter that sort of difference could mean rain instead of snow. Imagine trying to accurate forecast marginal snow events in the winter months when computer models are modifying the temperature forecasts even at the 48 hour range. As well as the precipitation type, forecasting where it will fall is extremely difficult. The 12z GFS run today is showing less in the way of rain for western areas of England and Wales, although the risk area has been pushed slightly further south. What all this illustrates is that forecasting the general picture expected across the UK is one thing, and forecasting the details is another.

Issued 22:00, 18/09/2007

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