GFS Evaluation - Part 3

GFS evaluation experiment - Part 3
The GFS charts today are looking ahead 96 hours and it is reasonable at this stage to expect them to be increasingly accurate. Hopefully by now the general synoptic set-up which is forecast will be close to the outcome on Thursday. None the less, local variations are still possible and there may well still be changes in the forecast details during the next couple of days.

12z charts generated on 16/09/2007

Temperature(C)

Rainfall rate (mm/hr)

Wind speed (km/hr) and direction

Finally, here's a link to an image showing the synoptic set up expected.
Chart example

Summary
The general picture remains consistent with an unsettled flow across the UK bringing rain to northern areas at least. Even at this stage it is too soon to be sure about the extent of the rain. One notable change on the latest run is that despite the ongoing threat of rain in northern areas the charts are showing pressure in southern parts to be several millibars higher than was shown by the GFS 12z run yesterday. The pressure gradient across the UK is tighter and stronger winds are now being forecast in some areas, especially in the north west.

Issued 19:50, 16/09/2007

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GFS Evaluation - Part 3

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