GFS Evaluation - Part 1

GFS evaluation experiment - Part 1
The icon forecasts and many of the charts which appear on this site are generated using raw data from the Global Forecast Model (GFS) which is an American numerical weather prediction model (NWP) considered to be one of the three best currently available in the world today. So how well does it perform? As ever there are many ways of evaluating how it is doing, but as a trial I thought it would be useful to run an experiment here during the next 5 days. Remember that this is a one off, and if it was repeated the results may be completely different. None the less it should be interesting! What I'll is show the forecast charts generated by the GFS 12z model runs on each successive day for 12pm on 20/09/2007. Then on 20/09/2007 I'll conclude by looking at the chart evolution and what the actual outcome in the real world was. The parameters I'll post charts for are: Synoptics Temperature (C) Precipitation rate (mm/hr) Wind speed (km/hr) So here we go!

12z charts generated on 14/09/2007

Temperature(C)


Rainfall rate (mm/hr)


Wind speed (km/hr) and direction


Finally, here's a link to an image showing the synoptic set up expected.
Chart example

Summary
The GFS on this run is showing the UK in a rather unsettled flow, with rain in places. Northern areas look rather cool with southern regions having close to average temperatures. Tomorrow I'll post the next set of images and look for consistency or changes in the expected weather next Thursday.

Issued 22:30, 14/09/2007

 

Brian Gaze's blog

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