The latest weather buzz

Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Autumn and winter

Posted Tue, 30 Aug 2016 18:15 

The meteorological autumn is almost upon us but in the short term it looks like there should be a reasonable amount of fine weather. How are things looking during the coming months?

Autumn forecast

The TWO seasonal forecast for Autumn will be issued tomorrow so I'll not say too much about what it contains at the moment. As you may have read the Met Office seasonal model favours warmer than average temperatures during September, October and November, but the signal is quite weak. They also suggest above average amounts of rainfall are slightly more probable than below average.

Winter prospects

I'll publish an updated look at the winter 2016/17 prospects soon. The latest Met Office seasonal probability charts suggest temperatures during December, January and February are more likely to be above than below average.

There are of course many factors to consider and numerous long range computer models these days which are run by various national forecasting centres around the globe. On TWO you can view charts from the CFSv2 model which runs out many months ahead. Recent runs of the model have shown a mixed picture but I don't think they're pointing towards a particularly cold winter at this juncture, but obviously there is loads of time for things to change.

The CFSv2 chart below for December favours a positive pressure anomaly over the continent and if correct would probably lead to mildish conditions in the UK and a slow start to the winter sports season in the Alps and Pyrenees. It's only one chart though so don't read too much into it.

Summary

Some of the third party data is pointing towards a warmer and wetter than average autumn and a milder than average winter. In the next couple of days you'll be able to read the TWO autumn outlook and I'll shortly post my views on what I think could happen this winter.

Chart viewer

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BarrowiceInfo 8 years ago Show replies(0)

I'm expecting a winter similar to that of 2007/8 or 2008/9 which would be in line with the solar cycle and La Nina progression.

Update

keiron6791 8 years ago Show replies(0)

The trend over recent years suggest a mild, wet winter. I am expecting this to be the 4th consecutive snowless winter for my area. The more important talking point about winter prospects these days should be regarding the potential for flooding.

Update

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