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Thunderstorm risk grows

[Updated 07:45 11/05/2017]

Thursday is off to a dry start in most areas. It is chilly and locally there has been a ground frost overnight.

This morning showers affect the south west but elsewhere it remains dry with sunny spells. Through the afternoon the risk of heavy and thundery showers extends across much of southern England and Wales, but there will be bright intervals too. Cloudier skies and patchy outbreaks of rain push into northern Scotland.

In the south it becomes warm and humid with temperatures reaching 21C (70F), but in Scotland maximum values will be close to 15C (59F). See the rain and lightning strikes radar for the latest view.

Tonight heavy showers move northwards across the western half of the UK. Elsewhere it should be mostly dry early on but during the second half of the night rain may push into the south.

Tomorrow there is a risk of thunderstorms in eastern England. In the west and Wales more prolonged spells of rain are likely. Rainfall totals are expected to vary significantly and parts of the south east could miss much of the wet weather during the next 48 hours.

The weekend looks changeable. Showery conditions continue on Saturday in all areas. On Sunday a band of more persistent rain spreads eastwards. 

Early next week wet weather is likely, especially in the north west. As we head towards the middle of the week it could become very warm in the south east for a time. Buzz looks ahead to mid May.

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A mixed outlook is shown. Next week it becomes very warm for a time.. View GEFS.