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Wet and windy in the south

[Updated 08:15 05/03/2017]

Sunday begins with showers affecting Scotland, and in area stretching from north Wales to the south eastern corner there is a band of heavy rain. Elsewhere it is mostly dry.

During the course of the day much of England and Wales has wet weather, but the rain becomes progressively more showery in nature. In southern counties it will be windy. The best weather is likely to be in Scotland where showery rain clears to leave a dry afternoon.

Temperatures range from 7C (45F) in Scotland to 10C (50F) in the south west of England. See the rainfall radar for the latest view.

Tonight it turns drier in most regions but showers continue in the south east and north west. In the south west cloud builds and late in the night rain could return.

Tomorrow isolated showers develop but much of the country remains dry. The exception could be southern coastal counties where there is a risk of wet weather.

Tuesday brings a good deal of fine weather to central and eastern areas. The west has a dry start too, but during the afternoon cloud thickens and outbreaks of rain develop.

Wednesday and Thursday remain mostly unsettled but high pressure could keep the south east drier. Towards next weekend high pressure is expected to be on the move, and this could lead to a colder pattern. It's not certain though and some of the overnight computer models runs show a different scenario with very mild air being pulled up from the south or southwest. Buzz looks at the prospects of a wintry blast.

Ensembles at a glance

The 16 day GEFS show changeable conditions for much of the first half of March. During the middle third of the month colder weather is favoured, but an alternative milder scenario is shown by a minority of the runs.