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Wintry blast on the way

[Updated 07:20 10/01/2017]

Tuesday begins cloudy and damp in much of the country. In the west there are some light outbreaks of rain.

Through the day the rain in the west pushes eastwards but it becomes patchy. Bright spells develop behind it but in the west cloud thickens again and light rain returns. The best of the sunshine will probably be in eastern Scotland.

Temperatures range from 5C (41F) in the north to 10C (50F) in the south. See the rainfall radar for the latest view.

Tonight damp weather pushes southeastward. In the north showers develop and turn increasingly wintry as it begins turning colder.

Tomorrow the north has a cold and very windy day with frequent sleet and snow showers. Over higher ground blizzard conditions develop. Southern and central regions start mild and dry but it gradually becomes colder from the northwest.

During Thursday and Friday a cold northwesterly flow brings frequent snow showers to the north. These are expected to give significant accumulations and cause travel disruption. In the south a spell of more persistent rain, sleet and snow could push eastwards on Thursday.

Forecast confidence for the weekend is low as less cold air tries to push back in from the west. Computer ensemble models are uncertain about whether this will succeed. About 20% to 30% of the runs show high pressure building over Scandinavia and a bitterly cold easterly flow developing next week. Buzz takes a look at the snow risk.

Ensembles at a glance

The 16 day GEFS ensemble shows cold conditions early on. Through next week the favoured outcome is for rather cold and dry weather. However, very cold and mild outcomes are also possible.