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Rain spreading southwards

[Updated 09:40 01/01/2017]

The New Year begins with mixed weather. In the south it's overcast and damp, across central regions there is a band of heavy rain and in the north it's colder and showery.

During the day the rain in central counties slowly pushes southwards and over higher ground this may turn to sleet or wet snow at times before clearing away. Northern regions have a mix of sunny spells and wintry showers, and brighter conditions slowly extend into central regions.

The south starts off quite mild but the colder air in the north will be spreading southwards. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight wintry showers continue in northern and eastern coastal counties. Elsewhere clear spells lead to a widespread frost.

Tomorrow it remains cold. Showers continue near the east coast but most of the country has a dry and bright day.

Through the middle and second half of the week high pressure is expected to become the dominant feature of the weather again. This keeps things generally dry in southern and central regions with a risk of nighttime frost and fog. In the north west it becomes more changeable and patchy outbreaks of rain could spread southwards.

Forecast confidence for next week is very low. The most likely outcome is for a west to northwesterly flow across the northern half of the UK with pressure remaining high to the southwest. The latest guidance suggests a reduced chance of a significant cold spell. Buzz looks ahead to mid January.

Ensembles at a glance

The 16 day GEFS ensemble shows cold conditions early but temperatures then recover. During the second week a mild start is shown before it turns colder and more changeable.