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Xmas followed by winter?

[Updated 08:00 25/12/2016]

Christmas Day starts exceptionally mild across the UK. It is mostly dry but patchy spells of rain are affecting the north.

As we head through the day it remains windy as Storm Conor tracks to the northwest of Scotland. In the far north it will be stormy and through the morning more persistent outbreaks of rain develop. This afternoon the wet weather steadily spreads southeastwards, but southern and central regions remain mostly dry.

It will be extremely mild but the existing Christmas Day temperature record isn't expected to be broken with values ranging from about 10C (50F) to 14C (57F). See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

This evening the rain spreads southwards and is followed in northern regions by colder and showery conditions. The showers could wintry before midnight so a white Christmas could be recorded in some locations.

Boxing Day begins with patchy rain in the south east but this quickly clears away to leave a dry day. In the north showers continue and these could be wintry at times. It will be colder than today.

During the middle part of the week high pressure brings mostly dry weather but there will be a risk of nighttime frost and fog. By the weekend there are signs of a significant change as high pressure becomes centred to the west of the UK and much colder arctic air spreads southwards. At this stage uncertainty remains but January could begin with an icy blast.

Buzz looks at the chance of colder weather as we head into January.

Ensembles at a glance

The 16 day GEFS ensemble show dry weather returning after Boxing Day. By the New Year colder conditions are favoured.