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Unsettled weather soon?

[Updated 07:00 14/12/2016]

December has been mild so far with the Central England Temperature (CET) currently about 1.6C above the average. High pressure over the continent has been blocking the progression of rain bearing weather fronts as they move in from the Atlantic, but it hasn't been oriented in a way which would allow cold air to move in from the north or east. During the second half of the month there are signs of more unsettled weather developing.

This morning it's generally murky and mild, and patchy outbreaks of rain are affecting Northern Ireland and Scotland. As we head through the day more persistent spells of rain slowly spread across the north and west but central and eastern England remain dry.

Maximum temperatures range from about 8C (46F) in the north to 12C (54F) in the south west. See the rainfall radar for the latest view.

Tonight rain slowly edges eastwards and peters out. Behind it in the north west clearer and colder air returns with a patchy frost possible by the morning. Ahead of it in the south east it stays dry and quite mild.

Tomorrow there will be a lot of cloud around and some drizzle. In Northern Ireland more persistent rain develop in the afternoon. 

Further wet weather affects the north and west on Friday. By the weekend it should be mostly dry as high pressure builds. Temperatures fall back towards the mid December.

Buzz looks ahead to mid December. The GFS / GEFS computer model suite now covers December 25th so our Christmas Countdown being updated daily.

Ensembles at a glance

The 16 day GEFS ensemble show dry conditions early in the period. Towards and beyond Christmas it turns more unsettled with rain in all regions at times.