Overview
A close to average winter is forecast with a weak bias towards slightly below normal temperatures over the three month period. Despite temperatures close to the average over the three month period as a whole, some colder spells are expected to bring a risk of some snow to all parts of the country, especially the north and east..
Temperature
Temperatures are expected to be close to or possibly just slightly below the long term average over the three month period. A deviation of between -0.7C to +0.3C from the 1971-2000 average is expected.
Precipitation Over the three month period precipitation levels are generally expected to be close to average.
December
Temperature: Slightly below average Precipitation: Above average First half
The first half of the month is expected to bring a lot of unsettled and at times stormy weather to much of the UK. Temperatures will often be close to or just below average in the south, with colder conditions developing further north. Higher ground in northern regions could see significant snowfall, and at times snow could fall to lower levels in these areas, and over higher ground further south. Overnight frost developing at times..
Second half
The second half of the month may begin with a spell of quiet and cool weather as high pressure builds across the UK. This could bring a significant risk of frost and possibly fog, although bright conditions are likely at times. Later on a return to less settled weather is expected with rain affecting most of the UK again. The less settled weather should often be accompanied by higher temperatures, and southern areas may be rather mild at times. However, transitory colder conditions could continue to bring the possibility of wintry showers over higher ground, especially in the north.
January
Temperature: Close to average (Possibly slightly below)
Precipitation: Close to average
First half
The first half of the month is expected to begin rather unsettled conditions, with wet and windy weather and close to average temperatures for most of the country. Rainfall levels during the early part of the month may well be quite high across most of the UK, although drier conditions are expected at times, especially in the south east. Later in the period settled conditions may develop bringing an increasing risk of overnight frost.
Second half
The second half of the month is expected to bring colder conditions at times with frost developing increasingly widely. Some sleet or snow is likely, particularly in eastern regions. In the west and south west colder conditions are more likely to be interspersed by more frequent milder interludes which will bring a greater chance of rain and extend to eastern areas at times.
February
Temperature: Slightly above average (possibly close to)
Precipitation: Below average
First half
The first half of the month is expected to begin with rather cold and dry conditions, especially in eastern regions. Overnight frost is likely to be quite widespread and possibly sharp for a time. A change to less settled weather is expected to develop with temperatures returning to average values and outbreaks of rain affecting most of the UK. By the middle of the month dry conditions may return, with temperatures close to average in the west, but colder in the east with a risk of wintry showers and overnight frost at times.
Second half
The second half of the month may bring a good deal of dry to the south and south east, with temperatures probably rising above average. Less settled spells of weather are expected further north and west with rain and above average temperatures.
Forecast Issued 30/11/2011
Key
Temperature
Much above average - the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be more than 2C above the 1961-90 average
Above average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be 1C to 2C above the 1961-90 average
Close to average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be between 1C below and 1C above the 1961-90 average
Below average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be 1C to 2C below the 1961-90 average
Much below average - the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be more than 2C below the 1961-90 average
Rainfall
Much above average - expected to be more than 150% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Above average - expected to be between 125% and 150% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Close to average - expected to be between 75% and 125% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Below average – expected to be between 75% and 50% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Much below average - expected to be below than 50% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series