UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Summer: Warm. Dry second half

Forecast Issued 31/05/2017

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview

Warmer than average with the possibility of several hot periods. Unsettled spells are likely, especially during the first half of the summer.

Temperature

A warmer than average summer is expected. The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is forecast to be 1C to 2C above the average. There is considered to be a higher than average chance of extreme heat.

Precipitation

Close to average. Wetter conditions during the first half of the summer are forecast to be offset by drier conditions during the second half.

June

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Above average generally. Wettest in the north west and driest in the south east.

First half

During early June all regions have changeable weather leading to showers or longer spells of rain. Dry, sunny and warm spells are most likely in the south and east, with wet periods most frequent in the north and west. Temperatures will often be close to average in the north west but the south east is expected to be warmer and there is a chance of it becoming very warm towards the end of the period.

Second half

The second half of the month is likely to be mixed. All parts of the country have showers or longer spells of rain but also drier and warmer spells, particularly in the north and east.

 

 

July

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation:

Close to average.

First half

The first half of the month is forecast to be mixed with wet weather at times but also warm and fine spells. The driest weather on balance will probably be in the south and east, but a heightened risk of thunderstorms means local variations could be very large. Temperatures should be above average taken over the period as a whole. 

Second half

During the second half of the month the chance of settled periods leading to very warm or hot spells increases, but overall the picture remains quite mixed. Showery spells of rain are probable, and in the south east a higher than normal occurrence of thunderstorms is expected.

August

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation

Below average.

First half

During the first half of the month a higher than normal chance of drier and sunnier conditions is forecast. At times it could become very warm or hot. Thundery breakdowns mean rainfall amounts could vary significantly but overall they will probably be below the average.

Second half

The second half of the month is forecast to bring predominantly fine and warm weather. However more changeable spells are possible towards later on.

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