The monthly outlook is based on output from various global forecasting models combined with our own analysis.
Close to average.
Warmest in the east.
Becoming very warm and mostly fine in the south and east during the first few days. The north west probably remains more changeable with showers or longer spells of rain.
During the middle of the period cooler air and showery pushes eastwards but thereafter temperatures rise again in the south east and it may become very warm. Remaining quite changeable in the northern half of the country with further showers or more persistent spells of rain and close to average temperatures.
Showers or longer spells of rain interspersed with drier and brighter spells are expected in the north. In the south the emphasis may be on drier spells but even here showers or longer spells of rain are possible on occasion. Temperatures close to average overall but with a chance of cooler than spells in the north and warmer ones in the south.
Forecast confidence for this period is low.
The probabilities favour a continuation of a changeable and quite average pattern. The south of the UK is expected to have the best of the drier and warmer spells with the wettest conditions in the north west. Temperatures quite close to average overall but still with a chance of cool spells in the north and a warmer continental influence in the south.
Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.
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Uncertain August outlook
UK record temperature speculation
July weather forecast
Regularly updated discussion forecasts.
14 day outlook
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