The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from various global forecasting models combined with our own analysis.

September: Changeable later


Slightly below average.


Below average.



1/9 to 7/9

Cool and showery.

Cool and showery conditions persist for much of the week. The showers are expected to be most frequent in the east with drier conditions developing in the west. In the north and west there is a risk of ground frosts later in the week as the chance of clear periods increases.

8/9 to 14/9

Settled start but more changeable later.

Mostly dry weather continues during the early part of the week across the country. Cloud amounts are likely to be variable but where clear periods develop nights will be chilly and there is a risk of ground frosts in the north. In southern and central regions daytime temperatures steadily rise making it feel pleasantly warm in sunny spells. During the second half of the risk of rain in the north west increases and more changeable conditions progressively spread eastwards across the UK.

15/9 to 30/9

Forecast confidence for this period is low.

A more typically unsettled pattern is forecast to affect most of the UK during the second half of the month. In this scenario all regions can expect rain at times but also drier spells. Periods of rain are likely to be most frequent in the north west of the UK with more emphasis on drier and settled spells in the south east. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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