The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from various global forecasting models combined with our own analysis.

October weather: Fine early on 

Issued 01/10/2016


Slightly above average.


Below average in the south, close to average in the north.



1/10 to 7/10

Increasingly settled.

After a showery start increasingly settled weather quickly returns to much of the UK. The exception is the north west where for a lot of the week it remains changeable with a risk of rain but towards the end of the period it may become more settled there too. During the days temperatures should be pleasantly warm in the south and east but chilly nights are possible under clear skies.

8/10 to 14/10

Mostly fine in the south.

Settled weather is expected in southern and eastern areas for much of the week. In the north west and west more changeable conditions develop early in the period and later on these push southeastwards. By the end of the week the bands of rain may push into southern counties. Temperatures close to or slightly above the average.

15/10 to 31/10

Changeable. [Forecast confidence is low.]

During this period all regions are forecast to have mostly unsettled weather. The driest periods are likely to be in the south and east with more frequent wet spells in the north and west. Overall temperatures will probably be close to the seasonal average but some chilly nights are likely to bring a risk of ground frost.

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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Check the latest local weather forecasts using the place of postcode selector near the top of this page. Links below are to UK discussion and long range outlooks on the site.

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