The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from various global forecasting models combined with our own analysis.

January: Unsettled

Temperature
Above average in the south, closer to average in the north.

Precipitation
Above average in the north, close to average in the south.

1/1 to 7/1

A changeable week is expected.

After a mild start colder air will return from the north west. A period of rain is then expected to push eastwards across southern and central parts of the UK. On its northern edge some of the rain could turn to sleet with snow over higher ground for a time. Clearer and cooler conditions continuing in Scotland and then moving south eastwards across all regions as the rain clears.

The second half of the week is expected to bring rain into the north west at times and a risk of hill snow later on. Farther south east rain is likely to be patchier until late in the week when it may become heavier and more persistent. Temperatures slightly above average in the south, but colder in the north at times. Windy at times in the north.

8/1 to 14/1

Unsettled and at times very windy, especially in northern regions.

Throughout the week spells of wet and windy weather are expected to alternate with clearer and showery conditions. In the north showers could be wintry over high ground at times.

Drier interludes are expected to be more frequent and longer lasting in the south.

Temperatures close to or slightly above average in the north and above average in the south for much of the week. Possibly becoming cooler towards the end of the week.

15/1 to 31/1

Forecast confidence for this period is low.

Unsettled conditions are forecast to continue during much of the second half of the month. The wettest and windiest weather is forecast to be in the north and west with more frequent drier interludes in the south, especially towards the end of the period. During drier spells the risk of nighttime frosts may increase.

Temperatures are likely to be close to average in the south over the period as a whole but perhaps slightly below average farther north with colder incursions more frequent. Over the Scottish mountains significant snowfall is expected and the risk of transitional snow could spread down to lower levels in the north on occasions. In the south the snow risk is expected to be low from showers in colder incursions, but some transitional snow is not ruled out, especially over higher ground.

Towards the end of the month the unsettled theme is forecast to continue but possibly continuing to lose its intensity. This could lead to an increasing chance of drier and relatively mild days in the south and close to average ones the north.

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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