The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from various global forecasting models combined with our own analysis.

December weather: Mixed month 

Issued 01/12/2016

Temperature

Slightly above average.

Precipitation

Slightly above average in the north west, slightly below average in the south east.

 

 

1/12 to 7/12

Cold start 

Much of the UK has cold and dry weather early on in this period. Cloud amounts vary but frosts readily form during clear spells. Later on a transition to milder and changeable weather takes place and in the west outbreaks of rain become heavy at times. The wet weather gradually extends eastwards but rain in the east will probably remain quite patchy. 

8/12 to 14/12

Changeable and mild.

All regions have unsettled conditions through the week with a risk of wet weather at times. In the west and north west there is a likelihood of heavy and persistent spells of rain, but in eastern regions rainfall is likely to be more intermittent . Temperatures are forecast to be well above the seasonal average with little frost risk.

15/12 to 31/12

Mixed. [Forecast confidence is low.]

There is a good deal of uncertainty about developments through this period and two possibilities are considered almost equally likely.

1) Favoured outcome (60%): Rather changeable conditions with fluctuating temperatures. All areas could see some rain and over high ground in the north it may be cold enough for snow at times.

2) Second outcome (40%): Drier and increasingly settled weather develops. This brings an increasing risk of nighttime frosts and chilly days. Fog could also become quite widespread.

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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