The monthly outlook is based on output from various global forecasting models combined with our own analysis.
Slightly above average.
Mild but becoming unsettled.
Dry and exceptionally mild conditions are expected in parts of the country during the first couple of days, although widespread fog forming overnight may be slow to clear during the days. During the middle and second half of the week it remains mild but becomes increasingly unsettled with bands of wet and windy weather pushing in from the southwest and spreading across the UK. Heavy rain is likely at times, especially in the west and north west where gales or severe gales are also possible.
Changeable weather persists with showers or longer periods of rain in all regions and over the Scottish mountains snow could become an increasing risk. Drier spells develop at times, the best of these are likely to be in the south and east. Very windy at times, particularly in the west and north west. Temperatures generally above the seasonal average in the southern half of the country during the first half of the week but cooler conditions in the north perhaps spread southwards towards the end of the week.
Forecast confidence for this period is low.
A changeable pattern is forecast to affect the UK during the second half of the month. In this scenario all regions can anticipate wet and windy conditions but also drier spells. Showers and more persistent periods of rain are likely to be most frequent and heaviest in the north west of the UK with a greater chance of drier spells in the south east. In the north there is a risk of intermittent colder incursions and these bring the prospect of snow to high ground in Scotland and northern England, and on occasion possibly to lower levels. In the south temperatures often remain close to or slightly above the seasonal average, although the chance of colder air reaching here is not discounted.
Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.
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Rain in the north west
Time for the snowrow
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