Another Model Output Thread.I have opened another thread to discuss this weekends Heatwavehere Heatwave 18/8/2012 ►Anything else as normal and you know the rules
http://solarham.net/wwv.htm
Sunspot numbers returning to low levels after 10 days or so of high levels. So, I would expect a cool and unsettled regime to regain control here within a week to 10 days. In the meantime, the models say warm to hot.
Edited by user 15 August 2012 08:03:54(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Vince, I make no apologies for telling it how it is wheather its settled/unsettled, warm or cold.
Yeah it is hot especially in the SE thiis weekend not so elsewhere as a waving front pushes slowly eastwards.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif
Edited by user 15 August 2012 08:40:42(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012081500/gfsnh-0-372.png?0
LOL wheres YD
Steve
As a tropical feature approaches from the SW next week, I can see some potential for another plume scenario, should that system become strong before if and when it reaches us. The tropical models actually take it to hurricane strength when it's near the Azores, which might be a bit extreme...
BOM shows the potential "plume round 3" scenario best this morning:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/bom/runs/2012081500/bom-0-174.png?00
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/bom/runs/2012081500/bom-1-186.png?00
GEM is close:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2012081500/gem-0-168.png?00
ECM is not far away:
Beyond whatever happens during the working part of next week, there's a strong signal for a marked cooldown. Believe it or not, the CFS long range output was showing that sort of thing for the end of August back in the final week of July!
Meanwhile this weekend we have the 22C 850hPa isotherm just clipping the extreme southeast - that's about as high as I've ever seen at the "reliable" tiomeframe... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1022.gif
(admittedly a bit of an outlier on the ensembles http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png )
Edited by user 15 August 2012 10:32:23(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
22C 850 - surely that would deliver about 32C to 34C.
saturday now looking the hottest day , sunday a few degrees cooler as winds turn west still pretty hot though 26-27o in places
Edited by user 15 August 2012 13:10:35(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Gosh, I don't think I have ever seen forecast or actual 850s of 28C in France , as shown in those BOM maps. 25C is rare as hen's teeth - seems to happen every few years. The "Canicule" of August 2003 saw 850s of around 23-24C over central France at its peak. Add 15C on to 850 temps as a rule of thumb and you get 43C.
With the wind direction, plume characteristics and high humidity I think we should also be on the look out for some extreme foehn-like temperatures in Bilbao. It managed 47C during August 2003 under similar conditions but with a slacker SW flow. The BBC's fun "further ahead" forecast range certainly seems to think so. They have 47C as a potential max-max next Wednesday.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif
Is ECM about to give us an insane chart to oggle at?
I suppose it depends on whether that more northern low is dragged SE and combines with the southern one.
It could show uppers over 20°C in the SE while under low pressure... fun to speculate on
In the end it's an extremely progressive 168-240 hour evolution offered up by ECM, although such interaction between the tropical low and the Atlantic is certainly possible.
Looking around the various models, there is a wide range of options regarding what that tropical low does next week, more so than this morning in fact. Therefore confidence is about as low as it gets really.
On the other hand confidence in the weekend heat is increasing, with the BBC finally talking about 30°C+ being observed (at least, on my regional news they were; I missed the national forecast).
Still, I'm far enough west that for IMBY I daren't raise my hopes too far just yet.
Sunspot numbers have nothing to do with it.
June 1991 came at a time of high sunspot numbers.
June 1976 came at a time of very low sunspot numbers.. lower than now by some distance.
I could go on.......
Maybe not all the time, but I've seen a number of times this year when this effect has kicked in. It may even be the delta in sunspot numbers rather than the absolute number that is important. And, if you look at ECM ensemble mean tonight, you start to see what I forecast this morning:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012081512/EDM1-240.GIF
Edited by user 15 August 2012 20:50:52(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
YD, why on Earth should sunspot numbers favour a correlation with a tiny part of the northern hemisphere, namely the UK? As we have seen, the USA has had record heat this summer, whereas we... haven't. Do the Yanks get their heat from a different, more spotty, sun?
I've no idea why. But, I've seen it happen enough times for there to be a rough correlation at least. I even remember spells in winters years ago, when I had no interest in solar activity, and someone would randomly make a post that solar activity had increased and, behold, a few days later the models flipped mild.
However, there are also, I am pretty sure, papers that do record that the North Atlantic is much more sensitive than other parts of the world to solar activity. Nor, do I believe, is the latter statement dependent on one's view of the AGW debate.
Edited by user 15 August 2012 21:26:24(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
There is some serious heat there so close by - temperatures approaching 38C not too far from the UK either.