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Media Discussion Thread 5th June 2012 ►►
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CAPE-steve Online
#41 Posted : 16 June 2012 10:27:17(UTC)
CAPE-steve

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Just 1mm in Resallach :O
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schmee Offline
#42 Posted : 16 June 2012 21:21:06(UTC)
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Bbc 22:19 dryer sunday with showers not as many as sat. Heavy rain for s.e on sunday night. Hope for next week becoming. warmer dryer sunnier
Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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schmee Offline
#43 Posted : 17 June 2012 19:34:13(UTC)
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Headline:
Rain tonight, clearing to sunshine and showers on Monday.This Evening and Tonight:
A generally cloudy evening and night, with rain developing across most parts and becoming heavy in places, more especially across Kent and perhaps parts of Sussex. Minimum Temperature 11 °C.Monday:
Cloudy generally at first, with rain in places but this will clear to allow some sunshine at times by the afternoon, although a few sharp showers are also likely. Maximum Temperature 20 °C.Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
Sunny spells and generally dry with light winds, but with a chance of showers Tuesday night. Becoming more generally cloudy and breezy during Thursday, with rain developing, heavy at times.

Still those showers and rain. A 20c in there too.
Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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schmee Offline
#44 Posted : 18 June 2012 06:16:57(UTC)
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Day 16 to 30
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
Warm with sunny spells and isolated showers on Wednesday. Thundery rain probably developing in southern Britain overnight. Becoming windier with heavy rain spreading north Thursday, turning more showery on Friday.
Updated: 0320 on Mon 18 Jun 2012.


Latest met shows slow improvement .albeit temperary and limited.

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Jun 2012 to Sunday 1 Jul 2012:
Cool and windy with persistent rain and showers for many areas on Friday. Conditions should gradually improve from the south during the weekend, but still some blustery showers around. From then on, conditions stay on the unsettled side, but after quite a wet June for southern parts of the UK, the wettest weather looks more likely to transfer northwards towards western Scotland, which has otherwise had quite a dry month in comparison. So, often wet and breezy across northern parts, with occasional rain or showers elsewhere but perhaps with more in the way of drier and sunnier conditions than of late. Temperatures should continue around or slightly below average for the time of year, but occasionally rather cool during wetter spells of weather, especially in the north and west.
Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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Ally Pally Snowman Offline
#45 Posted : 18 June 2012 09:45:24(UTC)
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Sadly Matt Hugo on Twitter this morning is very pessimistic about the weather for the next few weeks, no or little sign of summer coming up.

 

"Not looking good into early July either. Beginning to wonder whether it'll be a summer of 2 halves now or not."

"The 00Z GFS ENS mean continues to show a cyclonic and cool pattern across the UK up to the 4th of July"

"I'll take a look at the longer term trends tomorrow in a blog, it may not be want many want to hear/read mind, but what will be, will be..."
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Charmhills Offline
#46 Posted : 18 June 2012 10:00:05(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

 

Sadly Matt Hugo on Twitter this morning is very pessimistic about the weather for the next few weeks, no or little sign of summer coming up.

 

"Not looking good into early July either. Beginning to wonder whether it'll be a summer of 2 halves now or not."

"The 00Z GFS ENS mean continues to show a cyclonic and cool pattern across the UK up to the 4th of July"

"I'll take a look at the longer term trends tomorrow in a blog, it may not be want many want to hear/read mind, but what will be, will be..."

He's right what will be will be.


Duane.




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schmee Offline
#47 Posted : 18 June 2012 20:49:32(UTC)
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Fog possible. Thunder later in the period.The latest from.the met office. Evening sunshine for most as any showers die away, then a dry night with clear spells. The odd mist or fog patch developing in some rural areas towards dawn as winds remain light. Minimum Temperature 9 °C.Tuesday:
A mostly dry, sunny morning. Cloud will develop through the day with a few showers developing by afternoon but with some lengthy warm, sunny spells in between. Maximum Temperature 22 °C.Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
Wednesday, mainly dry and warm with sunny spells but becoming unsettled and cooler again for Thursday and Friday, with heavy, thundery rain early Thursday giving way to blustery, heavy showers.
Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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schmee Offline
#48 Posted : 19 June 2012 21:37:20(UTC)
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Bbc sunny after mist up to 24-24 in the south. Showers around in the midland. heavy rain late wed into thurs followed by showers.
Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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schmee Offline
#49 Posted : 20 June 2012 06:51:28(UTC)
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Warning out. * United KingdomYellow rain
* Orkney & Shetland
* Highlands & Eilean Siar
* Grampian
* Strathclyde
* Central, Tayside & Fife
* SW Scotland, Lothian Borders
* Northern Ireland
* WalesYellow rain
* North West England
* North East England
* Yorkshire & Humber
* West MidlandsYellow rain
* East Midlands
* East of England
* South West EnglandYellow rain
* London & South East EnglandYellow rainLondon & South East England Rain *
Issued at:1135 on Tue 19 Jun 2012
Valid from:0000 on Thu 21 Jun 2012
Valid to:1200 on Thu 21 Jun 2012Heavy rain is expected to spread north-eastwards during Thursday across parts of southern England and South Wales, with torrential downpours and thunderstorms possible in places. The public should be aware of large amounts of spray on roads and, in some places, minor flooding.
Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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Younger Dryas User is suspended until 20/06/2013 10:38:44(UTC)
#50 Posted : 20 June 2012 11:19:30(UTC)
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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html

Remaining mostly below average for the forseeable future and if this comes off the much-anticipated notably cool summer could finally be in reach
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AlvinMeister Offline
#51 Posted : 20 June 2012 11:29:06(UTC)
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I'd pay more attention to those forecasts if they were more definitive. I don't recall seeing Met outlooks stating forecasts such as "becoming widely dry, very warm and sunny" or "becoming exceptionally wet with heavily depressed maximum temperatures".

 

Yet we've seen both of these conditions during the last 5 weeks.

Salford, Manchester 67m ASL
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Sevendust Online
#52 Posted : 20 June 2012 11:34:27(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas Go to Quoted Post

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html

Remaining mostly below average for the forseeable future and if this comes off the much-anticipated notably cool summer could finally be in reach

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

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Brummie Snowman Offline
#53 Posted : 20 June 2012 13:02:20(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: schmee Go to Quoted Post
Warning out. * United KingdomYellow rain
* Orkney & Shetland
* Highlands & Eilean Siar
* Grampian
* Strathclyde
* Central, Tayside & Fife
* SW Scotland, Lothian Borders
* Northern Ireland
* WalesYellow rain
* North West England
* North East England
* Yorkshire & Humber
* West MidlandsYellow rain
* East Midlands
* East of England
* South West EnglandYellow rain
* London & South East EnglandYellow rainLondon & South East England Rain *
Issued at:1135 on Tue 19 Jun 2012
Valid from:0000 on Thu 21 Jun 2012
Valid to:1200 on Thu 21 Jun 2012Heavy rain is expected to spread north-eastwards during Thursday across parts of southern England and South Wales, with torrential downpours and thunderstorms possible in places. The public should be aware of large amounts of spray on roads and, in some places, minor flooding.

Yellow rain, that sounds serious.
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AlvinMeister Offline
#54 Posted : 20 June 2012 13:03:29(UTC)
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Is that worse, or better, than yellow snow?

Salford, Manchester 67m ASL
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schmee Offline
#55 Posted : 20 June 2012 21:45:28(UTC)
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worse :)
Just seen the 22:35 the focus on HEAVY THUNDERY sHOWERS. Moving north across sothern counties in the a.m and well north by afternoon. A warning forstrong wind on FridaUN
Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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Marigold Offline
#56 Posted : 21 June 2012 18:15:05(UTC)
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Amber alert now for the NW (England) "more than 100mm" rain possible in parts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

Southern Yorkshire Dales

Problems or queries? Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com
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schmee Offline
#57 Posted : 21 June 2012 20:38:20(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Marigold Go to Quoted Post

Amber alert now for the NW (England) "more than 100mm" rain possible in parts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

Thats going some... I see there is not much improvment in the next 30 days according to the met, I guess that puts to bed the drought situation for a long while now.

Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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North Sea Snow Convection Offline
#58 Posted : 23 June 2012 12:05:36(UTC)
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Putting aside the obvious negative connatations of the unsettled weather persisting well into July for the UK as a whole the updated 6 to 15 day METO forecast suggests the south and east becoming warm later in the period..but the 16 to 30 day forecast suggests average temps nationwide but a little below normal in the south east  How do the two periods therefore merge one into the other based on such a contradiction? 

Edited by user 23 June 2012 12:06:14(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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atom Offline
#59 Posted : 23 June 2012 12:38:27(UTC)
atom

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because there is a world of difference between the forecasting models 7 days ahead compared with the much-longer term. the 16-30 dayer is at the very best, a guide to the likely trend to occur, at worst it is disposable and guesswork based on ever-changing model output.
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nickl Offline
#60 Posted : 23 June 2012 13:19:42(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: atom Go to Quoted Post
because there is a world of difference between the forecasting models 7 days ahead compared with the much-longer term. the 16-30 dayer is at the very best, a guide to the likely trend to occur, at worst it is disposable and guesswork based on ever-changing model output.

theoretically, the 30 dayer should be altered if the 16 dayer badly contradicts it but i doubt that exeter see this as a priority.
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