oh dear
A weakening slow-moving band of cloud and rain across central Britain on Wednesday may affect more southern parts. Northern parts brighter with a few showers possible, and the best of the very warm and dry weather hanging on in the far southeast. Next weekend, there should still be a good deal of fine and dry weather around, but there are signals for more unsettled conditions to spread in from the northwest, with strengthening winds, and temperatures returning to near normal for the time of year. Into the following week, a north-south split looks most likely with the best of the drier and brighter weather in the south
ffs so they are going with gfs as opposed to ecm'ukmo?you couldn't make this up.
So much for the start of summer it seems .....maybe GFS is righjt after all.
The models have consistently suggested there would be a warmer period coming up, but that it would be more focussed in the south. There has been nothing to suggest a heatwave nor any real signal that the warmer than average temperatures would extend much longer than a few days. Indeed the indication was that they would return to close to average for the UK for late July. Average in July is summer.
As for cherry picking the met outlook. How about this take on the same paragraph.
They DON'T use the GFS.
The ECM ems data set must indicate this signal as well as their own model ems.
Another good video presentation from the BBC about why the weather will settle down and warm up over the next few days, and highlighting the uncertainty for next Friday (Olympics opening ceremony). Peter Gibbs also gives a brief explanation of ensemble forecasting past 5 days ahead: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/18931767
Interesting explanation of why 5 days and beyond they have such a range for possible temperatures (something which seems to have been aggravating one or two people).
Probably been posted before, but worth reading again...
http://www.monbiot.com/2012/06/15/storm-warning/
Storm Warning
"...You might as well draw predictions out of a hat. But Jonathan Powell generates headlines, the Express generates publicity for him, and its readers can be trusted to forget what he said the previous week, so what’s not to like?
Seeing into the future? The Daily Express won’t even look into the past."
Like the way the forecaster on Countryfile said "big events expected by the end of the week". Am rubbing hands in sweaty palmed anticipation. PS: Just realised what he meant! Wouldn't be good timing in any case.
Edited by user 22 July 2012 19:23:31(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Changes today in the outlook:
Remaining predominantly unsettled, with below average temperatures, sunny spells and showers in most districts. Initially, the the showers should be heaviest and most frequent in the east, perhaps with hail and thunder, before becoming lighter and more scattered from the west into the new working week. By midweek, a northwest-southeast spilt looks likely to develop, with the north and west remaining unsettled and rather windy, with occasionally heavy outbreaks of rain. There will be some drier and brighter weather in these areas, the best of this likely to the east of high ground. Meanwhile in the south and east, there should be lengthier drier and brighter periods, but again with some rain or occasional showers. Temperatures will be mainly below average, but perhaps approaching average at times across southeastern parts.
Updated: 1101 on Tue 31 Jul 2012
There is no clear signal for any particular weather type to dominate through this period, although below average temperatures seem more likely than above average, particularly towards the south and east. A continuation of the weather conditions that have predominated since mid-July seems most probable. A lengthy spell of hot, sunny weather across the whole country currently looks unlikely.
Updated: 1202 on Tue 31 Jul 2012
The first period is looking cooler. An interesting new first sentence for the second period for here in the SE
It nothing new about below average beacuse end of summer season every where in N Hemisphere world start going below average in end of August. It likely September could be the month for well above average since we didn't get any above average month since March.
I think it means below average compared to the average for late August though, George, not below average compared to the whole summer average