Finally the hot weather has arrived with a sizzling end to May. But will the dry, hot and sunny weather predominate through June? Early indications suggest quite a cool start to June before things start to return to average.
The deadline for CET entries is 23:59 on 31 May. Entries will be accepted up to 48 hours late but with the usual penalty regime applied for those who are participating in the annual competition.Please place your June CET predictions in this thread Historic data summaryHere is the usual rundown of historic data. The June CET has not been below 13.8C since 1991 when it was only 12.1C. Last year saw the coldest June since 1991 but it was only 0.3C below the 1971-2000 average. The June CET has been 1C or more above average 7 times since 2000. Long run averages: 1971-2000: 14.1C 1981-2010: 14.5C
Here is a chart of the June CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average
Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment GEFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
Well below average for the first few days before returning to averageECM ensembles (De Bilt) http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html
A similar pattern to GFS although a little less marked. A chance that it could turn very warm again towards the end of the first week
Weatheronline No long range forecast issued since 12 May
Slightly above average in the SE of the CET region, significantly above average in the far NW
Met office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/0/i/A3-plots-temp-JJA.pdf
Close to average although the spread of data points lies slightly below the 1971-2000 meanPattern matching (just for fun)
The CET for the first 5 months of the year will be about 7.3C. Looking at years since 1950 with a CET of between 6.7C and 7.8C for the first 5 months together with an April CET of 8.2C or less and May CET of between 11.3C and 12.1C we find the following:
1950 Jan-May 7.2C, Apr 7.6C, May 11.3C, Jun 16.2C1971 Jan-May 6.7C, Apr 7.9C, May 11.6C, Jun 12.4C1973 Jan-May 6.7C, Apr 7.0C, May 11.4C, Jun 14.8C1976 Jan-May 7.1C, Apr 8.1C, May 12.1C, Jun 17.0C1988 Jan-May 7.3C, Apr 8.2C, May 11.9C, Jun 14.4C2000 Jan-May 7.7C, Apr 7.8C, May 12.1C, Jun 15.1C2012 Jan-May 7.3C, Apr 7.2C, May 11.7C, Jun ?
There are three other years worth considering where the May CET was somewhat a bit cooler than this year but otherwise were quite similar years:
1967 Jan-May 7.0C, Apr 7.7C, May 10.4C, Jun 14.0C1974 Jan-May 7.3C, Apr 8.2C, May 11.0C, Jun 13.9C1994 Jan-May 7.0C, Apr 8.1C, May 10.7C, Jun 14.5CThis shows that for slightly cooler May's the following June was about average. For slightly warmer May's there is not much of a pattern really with a number of average years but also a couple of much warmer years and one very cool year.
Interestingly 1976 has shown up in the pattern matching this month although I think the chances of something similar happening this year are quite low.
Best guess based on the pattern matching is for a June CET somewhere between 14C and 15C (i.e roughly average to 0.5C above average) with a small chance of a very warm month
Edited by user 27 May 2012 16:04:21(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Looks like me first then....
I believe the CET will be above the long-term average with spells of warm dry weather interspersed with showery conditions.
Overall the rainfall will be around average because of showers.
All in all quite a decent month coming up with a CET of 15.3 degrees - so 1.2 degrees above the average.
I'm thinking we could see alternating cool and very warm/hot periods with fairly breif transitional periods in between.
Overall I'm predicting guessing hoping that the hotter spells will substantially override the cooler spells to give a considerably warmer than average month with a final CET of 15.7°C
14,4c for me thanks
Actually, lets hope we don't follow the silver Jubilee weather (and June) from 1977. I was in my pushchair at just over a year old, and having followed a period of sunny and hot weather, my parents were coming back to London from a holiday to see my grandparents in the IOW all sun burnt to be greeted by heavy showers including snow in Twickenham as people dived for cover during their street parties
Edited by user 28 May 2012 10:39:57(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
14.2C for me please
This one will be a real guess - Could be anything from 2C below normal to 3 above it .
I'll give this one another couple of days thought.
A bit of a mixed month, I think, but ending a little above average at 14.9c
Edited by user 28 May 2012 13:51:34(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
I cant see the month passing without a decent hot spell so i will say 14.4c. Cool start though.
Due to the large fluctuations in the prospects for June at the moment, there's a high chance that I'll have to revise my CET guess - I apologise in advance
13.9 for me please