Here's my latest video musing looking ahead to the start of June and the holiday weeked:
Thanks god for that very wet April otherwise we would have been in a serious situation drought wise by now across large areas.
Guys, is the video blurred for you? Its embedding through at a poor quality for me? You can change the resolution quality, so I might have to write some instructions on how to do it.
It's seems fine to me Gavin
I don't know as I can't watch the video at work.
Oh, thats OK, then. It must be something specific to me. But as I hardly ever watch my own videos that doesn't matter.
UKMetoffice STILL not buying it???????
Long range text updated and it remains the same.
Are they looking at the computer models,seriously?
GFS 06z another great run - high pressure all the way (mostly)
Prob best to judge it once the forecast period takes place...our weather is THAT fickle!
I never view or take notice on them since they repeat same wordings all year around so don't worry about those and enjoy what we got now. I am more happy to see daily temps of 20C or over from now to October when long daylight duration are useable. We lost already mostly in April and first half of May.
It's an interesting point Jiries. Looking at the current 15-dayer they could easily change the wording a tad to extend the settled weather. Nobody would know
UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 May 2012 to Friday 8 Jun 2012:Rather unsettled at first with showers or longer outbreaks of rain in most parts, perhaps heavy at times. The north and west of the United Kingdom are most likely to see more persistent rain. There is an increasing chance of drier, brighter weather towards the first weekend of June for many parts, however the northwest is likely to remain rather cloudy throughout with spells of rain. Cloudier conditions may also affect the east of the UK where there is also a chance of some rain or showers. Temperatures during this period are likely to be close to average but it will become warm in any sunny spells. Eastern coasts are likely to be cooler at times.Updated: 1220 on Fri 25 May 2012
This is todays update.
And,with the latest model data to hand,its a very disappointing (and IMo quite a strange )outlook.
They evidently fancy the trough to be parked just to the west of the UK and a trough clos to theE/SE..
Edited by user 25 May 2012 12:10:14(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
i dont think the met office is alone in their long range forecast at the moment. some good reliable forecasters on other sites are hinting at more unsettled conditions than the current models are suggesting.
Some disagreement over where exactly the high will build as we go through next week. GEM and BOM insist on a plume type situation which would deliver widespread hot weather with 30c likely. ECM op and the GFS 6z have the main thrust of warm uppers disappearing west of the UK. Both models would bring a lot of dry warm weather but it would be a little infuriating for the east coast which would again see the lowest temperatures and the greatest chance of cloud. The ECM mean does offer hope that the centre of the high will be more situated over the UK and that the op was too keen to bring in that cooler northeasterly.
UKMO at 144h also looks promising for a general rise in heights over Europe which would promote a greater rise in temperatures for the UK.
Edited by user 25 May 2012 12:41:00(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Which forecasters are these can i ask?
dont really want to give out names,but the bloke who runs weatherweb is one of them. he is a top rate forecaster in my opinion and will put himself out on a limb.
Lets wait and see,the models are not backing up his theory!
You're saying that if there hadn't been any rain, we'd be in a drought?
Given the reliability of LRF's that's largely guesswork. You only have to look at Matt's(MVH) view recently to know how fast things can switch and Matt's very good. Look beyond 5 days in model output at your peril. Fww these meto updates are usually very woolly and I regard them as interest value only
Not yet, but go back a little while and it was unsettled a while ago for the current date and the weather couldn't be more different. If I was a betting man I would go for an unsettled period in June which seems to be quite normal. However there are always exceptions so will be interesting to see if this year is one of them...