Histroy of Jubilee weather isn't much better - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Jubilee-weather-history.htm
well fortunately, the renewed greenland anomoly at day 9 is on the op rather the ens mean. things inching towards a better end to the month. i dont believe anyone has seen anything particularly promising prior to the last week of may. no sign that we lose the mean troughing to our sw but hopefully we can get more influence from the higher heights to our east and southeast to end the month. would mean a warmer flow is likely off the continent although a more pronounced trough into n iberia will lead to a flow off the north sea for much of eastern england and eastern scotland. the rain will never be too far away although maybe we can just about be clear of its mean position by that last week.
No sign that the trough from hell wants to leave our vicinity in the models.
I see the metoffice have backtracked from their hints of something more settled as we leave May.
And there was me thinking first 2 weeks in June might be a good arrow for a fortnight off work.
I am having to backtrack from my hopes for a better end to May as well, it really is looking shocking, and I am starting to get a bit fed up with waiting for my first game of cricket!
All the major models paint a continuing cool and unsettled May, with little sign of anything improving as we head towards June.
My summer LRF will be out shortly, and I fear it will not make good reading for those of you looking for a long hot summer....
And yes, there might be the need for an ark again.
Edited by user 11 May 2012 23:57:55(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
same here mate but according to one moron i have mental issues for having a dislike for incessant cold and rain in May !!!.
Increasingly unsettled picture after the chilly, showery weather has gone though by Wednesday. A brief ridge than going downhill thereafter with general rain, heavy rain likely from next Thursday onwards, especially, in the south and east of the country.
Very changeable FI.
Edited by user 12 May 2012 08:21:40(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
An interesting signal is apparent this morning; the westerlies look to rev up in about a weeks time, with low pressure smashing its way across the north Atlantic - yet it looks to have a hard time reaching the UK, as heights rise to our NE, possibly in combination with high pressure ridging in from the Azores.
Perhaps the typical "June return of the westerlies" will try to happen early this year, only to be held away to our NW with easterlies tending to dominate.
A note on the coming week - for some reason, the low pressure tracking into southern areas is only progged to bring 2-4mm IMBY each day that it's with us. Indeed, the GFS charts show very little frontal rain, with showers dominating the scene. I imagine that convection would bring far more rain than shown to some areas while others would escape with not much at all. That said, GFS is holding back more than usual in this case. Perhaps it expects a lot of dry air to be wrapped into the trough? That would also explain how it manages to get temps close to average from Friday.
ECM is ghastly.
The last chart in particular looks ripe for the pattern resetting with a huge block off the Eastern seaboard and HP in the Atlantic being sucked up towards it allowing the Low to the NW to set up shop over or near the UK.
Aagin we see the real heat resevered for the Eastern Med and Eastern Europe.The western med and a lot of western europe look brutal.A pattern becoming more and more common in summer months i suspect.
Edited by user 12 May 2012 08:57:17(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
GFS has never been good at convective rainfall infact almost useless!
Shocking models this morning and all are in agreement right out till +200.
As I said last night the worse weather will be in the south with a number of channel lows which would have been great had it been winter!
Make the most of today because its November weather from Tuesday onwards
Thank God I could get away to Lanzarote during the past week, my vitamin D levels had dropped to those of an Eskimo so the Lanzarote sunshine was a great relief.
The flip side of our weather is that most of the eastern Med is having a early summer, friends of mine in Corfu told me the weather has been unusually hot reaching 32c last week compared to the early May average of 22c.
Long suffering TWO Model watchers may find the link below useful:
Edited by user 12 May 2012 09:06:46(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Where are all the optimists this morning? I feel a bit lonely here
To be honest, the reliable timeframe is basically a slide to less pleasant conditions, except for a possible blip on Wednesday, so I can see why the mood is very negative this morning.
Best we all get outside in the sun where we have it and try to store up as much vitamin D as we can without burning ourselves!
Well I for one would be happy with a couple of weeks of unsettled weather against constant grey drizzle, not that I'd be able to do anything about it if it were otherwise. Worrying about FI isn't going to stop me enjoying the spells of sunshine we do get and June is generally an unsettled month anyway, so my expectations are not high. Back in March we were wondering if it would ever rain again and lo and behold - six weeks of it!! Yes, I'm sick of it but it's still Spring with Summer yet to come and I haven't given up on some long warm sunny days!
Count me in as a fellow optimist SC!
A realistic post and a sensible one to.
I just hope we start to see some improvement in 2 weeks time. I am starting to get a little concerned now having just read Gavin Ps forecast for this week.
It sure is dire and its mid May now.
I hope this is not a 1985 or 1986 type of set-up.
remembering what happened in the winters following '85 and '86 i would happily accept this set-up if in meant that winter 2012/13 followed suit
Funnily enough I've just come back from a holiday too - and it was unpleasantly hot and sunny most days. I'm surprised (and pleased!) to see how pleasant it's forecast to be for the next week or so, it looks like the weather's well and truly stuck in a relatively cool rut.
The kink in the jet that bought colder weather where I was (Brookville in Indiana) a few days ago is over us now,. The warmth ahead of the kink seems to have moderated greatly as well, although it wasn't far from average by day yesterday down here by the looks of things.
So once again I find myself watching a marked dip in the ensemble mean draw ever closer. I'm going to miss this sunshine and temperatures in the mid-teens come Tuesday and I know many of you will feel the same way. My family keep complaining to me every time the weather turns cool and showery again, as if I'm sitting here pulling various levers to make it all happen - if that were the case, I would not have watched more than a third of 2012 pass by without seeing a single lightning strike!
From Thursday onwards, the GFS 12z maintains the theme of the Atlantic revving up a bit and trying to attack from the west, while at the same time low pressure has moved up across the UK from the south.
The Atlantic low could combine with the UK low and create a particularly wet scenario, which is what the 00z CFS (1 month) run did, but GFS continues to build heights to our NE which then proves strong enough to halt and even temporarily reverse the progress of the Atlantic low, leaving us in a showery regime and on the warmer side of affairs... no heatwave, but with temperatures getting above average where the suns rays find a path to our now green and pleasant land.
It all looks a bit risky and it wouldn't take much of a shift in the position of the trough to produce a much wetter outlook (but of course, a shift westward is also within the realms of possibility, if we get seriously lucky).
Some cold temperatures on the cards in the coming week, but from next weekend (18 May) the mean, control and operational run all suggest temperatures at or above average for the rest of the month (or at least until 28 May).
That may well happen beacuse we sure seem to be in a cool summer/ cold winter cycle now.
Show me just one above average day in tonights ECM and I will buy you a drink!
The outlook is dreadful, its as simple as that.
The ECM run places troughing near the UK from Thursday, sometimes very close indeed, but never actually right over us.
UKMO is similar but GFS has more pronounced troughing that is right over us to end the working week. In both scenarios, showery conditions are the name of the game.
Temperatures look to recover to nearer average after the cool temperatures of Tuesday, but the road to anything warmer than average (or even just average) looks fairly long... at least a week long by my reckoning and with the ECM run taking the full 10 days to even bring the promise of such temperatures.
Like with the February cold spell, I'm hoping that a long wait will deliver a substantial deviation of temperatures from the norm - but in the opposite direction to back then, obviously!