Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas

Originally Posted by: doctormog

And the outlook? The same as it has been :(

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

At this rate skiing will become a new summer sport at Cairngorm ;)

I wonder if we can sustain these negative temp anomalies through the year- something like 1962 could be a pattern matcher

Finally got to sit out in the garden in a t-shirt late this afternoon

The models are showing that as low pressure moves NE through the UK on Thursday/Friday, high pressure will be quick to build in from the west behind it, probably fast overwhelming an attempt by a transient Euro High to push some heat into the UK.

Thereafter, the signal is for high pressure to be centered out west of the UK as a mid-Atlantic feature, with troughs dipping down to our NE at times. Currently, the models are suggesting that heights will be low to neutral across Greenland and hence that the mid-Atlantic High will be keen to ridge through the UK behind those troughs to our NE.

IMO there is the chance that such a ridge could develop into a Scandi High for a time. I imagine low pressure would then be trying to give the south a hard time yet again... recent "CFS daily" runs have tended to show that, with high pressure not managing to give a prolonged settled spell across most of the UK until about a week into June.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

Finally got to sit out in the garden in a t-shirt late this afternoon

 

The models are showing that as low pressure moves NE through the UK on Thursday/Friday, high pressure will be quick to build in from the west behind it, probably fast overwhelming an attempt by a transient Euro High to push some heat into the UK.

Thereafter, the signal is for high pressure to be centered out west of the UK as a mid-Atlantic feature, with troughs dipping down to our NE at times. Currently, the models are suggesting that heights will be low to neutral across Greenland and hence that the mid-Atlantic High will be keen to ridge through the UK behind those troughs to our NE.

IMO there is the chance that such a ridge could develop into a Scandi High for a time. I imagine low pressure would then be trying to give the south a hard time yet again... recent "CFS daily" runs have tended to show that, with high pressure not managing to give a prolonged settled spell across most of the UK until about a week into June.

What? Where are you?

Anyway, developments are seriously against any prolonged settled conditions in the south. One of our more common annual events must be due soon in the form of the June Monsoon. I'm already close to writing May off

   Yep, T.shirt weather here in North Notts today too.  First sun we've seen for a few days though!

Originally Posted by: doctormog

T-shirt weather here too...I was wearing it under my jumper and fleece, although I do admit it felt almost bearable in the sunshine between wintry showers ;)

The cool and largely unsettled outlook looks to continue based on the12z GFS op run. The 12z MetO run hints at something a little more settled (briefly?) by next weekend.

Yup,a pretty wet and vile week ahead for most before what looks to be a brief drying out late in the week into next weekend.

The GFS precip/850 charts are actually painful to look at this evening with some lovely warm weather across much of Europe in the reliable,apart from one soggy island across the channel from France that is.

In so far as May is concerned,nothing i have seen changes my feeling that a decidedly wet and cool first half of the month is nailed and im starting to edge towards expanding that to the first 3 weeks now.

I'd say that the operational run would have 850s more above average than below from that run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Obviously doesn't mean that is how it will happen. But just a thought.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Originally Posted by: Albert Steptoe

Yup,a pretty wet and vile week ahead for most before what looks to be a brief drying out late in the week into next weekend. 

 

Depends where you are. For NW England (and SW Scotland), looks like an orrible Monday, followed by a decent Tuesday. Wednesday will also be decent for much of the day before rain moves in and wipes out Thursday. Friday will be back to decent, which will lead into a dry & settled weekend.

So, out of the 7 days, here we're looking at 2 rubbish days and one turning so later on. But 4 days of dry & likely sunny weather. OK, so it's going to be a few degrees below average - but I'll take this week's weather over the usual dreary, cloudy, drizzley, aver-temp crapfest bore-athon that's predominated for the past 5 years.

Exactly - the last decent summer was in 2006. So we are well due for a good one.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger

Exactly - the last decent summer was in 2006. So we are well due for a good one.

If you think your summers from 2007-2011 were bad, you want to try living up here. There seems to have been a line from around Aberystwyth to the Humber estuary, above which there's been a predominant westerly feeding in convective crap.

This is how we percieved them from 2007 in East Anglia.

2007  was cloudy and wet - But in East Anglia we missed the violent downpours which many other places had - but the summer was not good.

2008 was average  iffy for June and July. August 2008 was terrible with the lowest sunshine hours in August since 1912.

2009. No really settled warm spells - changeable.

2010. Worse than 2009.

2011 - which was last year - not at all good and August was dull and dreary.

Therefore the last decent warm to hot settled spell was the nice Sepetmber of 2006. July 2006 - well that was in a class of its own really.

I want a decent summer and all I am hoping for is a period of 4 to 6 weeks of 25s to 30s - mostly mid to high 20s would do.

Anyway - sorry to go OT.

according to the 12z ecm op run, uppers go from 20c to zero within 48 hours on the n spanish coast next weekend. that maybe a little unlikely so i'd suggest this op run is a tad progressive in that respect and the renewed troughing probably wont get quite so far south so quickly.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger

Anyway back on topic .

 

Not good at all really.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Providing the snow level doesn't creep up a little too high it's looking very good for late Monday through Tuesday! Clearing my diary for Wednesday on CairnGorm!

Not just down there, OK you wouldn't have been sitting out there in a tshirt today, but last week....