There's a good chance that March will have a higher temperature than both April and May this year, in my back yard of course. March reached 22.1c by the way.
I would think thats a rather unusual occurance to say the least?
The temperatures have been all over the place this year.
The warmest day in the UK in February was 18.7C on the 23rd at Coleshill. Only one day in April managed to beat that anywhere in the UK which was the final day of the month
In March the temperature exceeded 17C somewhere in the UK on 14 separate days (and 20C+ on 8 days) with the highest temperature at Aboyne on the 27th with 23.6C. In April the temperature exceeded 17C on only one day, again the final day of the month.
In April the highest temperature was 19.7C on the 30th at Kew Gardens. The second warmest day was the previous day when Gravesend reached 16.9C. The temperature failed to reach 15C anywhere in the UK on 17 days.
So far in May the warmest temperature has been 21.1C at Norwich AP on the 10th. That is the only day the temperature has exceeded 21C although it has been over 20C on 2 other days. The temperature has failed to reach 15C on 3 days.
The latest date in recent years for a 25C to be reached was 6 June in 2004 (if the old LWC site is excluded on the basis it was a dodgy rooftop site - if you include LWC the latest date was 24 May in 2009)
Incredibly unusual. Since I began recording, 2012 is/could be:
The first year March has reached 20C
The first year April has not reached 20C
Could be the first year May does not reach 20C
March has a warmer temperature than both April and May
That's not an unusual occurance here. April 2000, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010 all failed to reach 20ºC in addition to 2012.
I've recorded 20.9C this month, on the same day as Norwich AP got to 21.1C.
I am expecting a significant downward adjustment to the Hadley data this month. My CET estimate up to today is just 9.27C. It still looks like we will see something of a warm up in the medium term but only back towards average temperatures. The next 6 days look decidedly chilly.
The way things are going we may now struggle to even get to 10C this month. Coldest May since 1996 now looks almost certain. We could even see the 6th or 7th coldest May since 1900
Edited by user 14 May 2012 21:01:44(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Looks like your 9.5c is in with a fair chance YD! Me? I'm doomed I tell you! 11.5c!!!
Wouldn't it be amazing if we had two 10C yearly CET's and 2 sub 9C yearly CET's in a 4 year period?
If we get a cool summer and autumn, it must be possible.
Edited by user 14 May 2012 21:31:12(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
I was just thinking today that, though we have had a number of coolish summer months in recent years, we haven't really had a single really cool summer month, as you would often have seen in an 80s summer for example. I mean a month >1c below the 1961-90 averages. We haven't seen one of those - yet
Bloody hell - and I thought I was sticking my neck on the line with 10.5C.
9.6C So far.
http://climate-uk.com/
Hadley has it at 9.7c to 14th
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
7.96c here so far,max temp this month 16.0c
April mean 5.92c,max temp 16.1c
march mean 7.28c max temp 21.7c
unless we see something significant i also will have recorded a higher max in March than april and may..
Mean @ Tan Hill @ 1732ft 4.3c,April 2.9c
Edited by user 15 May 2012 15:05:32(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
The Spring CET currently stands at 8.04C to the 14th (using my estimated Hadley data for May) which is 0.26C above the 1971-2000 average thanks to the very mild March.
Therefore the overall temperature for this Spring will be close to average but well below what we have seen in many recent Springs. Even so there were many colder Springs recently up to the middle of May including 2010, 2006, 2001, 1996 and most years between 1961 and 1989.
Based on my predictions for the remainder of May we should see the Spring CET finish around 8.5C or 8.6C. That would be very similar to 2010, 2006 and 2001. 1996 was much colder but otherwise you have to go back to 1987 and the immediately preceding years to find a colder Spring.
I have included a chart below of the Spring CET since 1961. The mid 60's to mid 80's were notably cold and since then there has been a huge rise in temperature with only 1996 significantly below the long run mean.
CET: (May 1-15): 9.6°C (-1.2 degC)
------
CET: (May 1-15): 9.6°C (-1.1 degC) - provisional to the 15th
Edited by user 16 May 2012 11:07:30(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Thanks GW. It's an interesting statistic that this Spring will still have been warmer than every single Spring of the 1970s!
To be honest, I'm old enough to remember the springs of the second half of the 1970s, and I can't ever remember prolonged warm weather in Spring like we have had in recent years. I do remember Summer 1976 though.