ECM looks quite a dry run tonight for the areas in need, the rain outlook also looks fairly dry 10mm in 8 days is no where near enough
For me up here rain is not an issue we have lots of water so it can stay dry if it wants for us up north
For those down south rain is an issue and with the outlook for the next 2 weeks staying fairly dry
The 12zs tonight continue in general to paint a dry theme. There are subtle differences in the prognosis of the big three beyond the innitial retrogression of the High pressure west of the UK. GFS gradually brings a slack rather cold Northerly biased airflow over the UK with the chance of a few showers and frost by night. High pressure returns over the UK by the end of the run although it would be a much colder version than that we have currently. The GFS ensembles show a slow cool off towards the long term mean by the end of the run with the Control falling off a cliff right at the end though it has little support. ECM also brings a Northerly of sorts but at the end of its run it looks almost like a re-run to where we started this current spell off with High pressure ridging NE from the Azores to no doubt show a centre of high pressure over the UK in the days that follow 240hrs. In Summary the weather would become cooler by the end of this week and after a few cooler days with frost at night I wouldn't be surprised to see a steady warming again in 10 days time if ECM is to be believed. With regard to rain it's looking as bleak as ever for the water authorities as High pressure maintains it's shield around the British Isles.
Sorry, that just doesn't really stack up. You've been wishing for dry, mild, high pressure dominated weather since you started on the forum last June. To the extent that you seem to want an end of weather. Just one tiresome season of endless high pressure. Cue Just one long season of the same. Which would have the net effect of reducing the country to a desert.
Even those who harp on about cold only really go for it hard during winter, but there seems no season when you would not wish it mild and dry.
As for the north east some how being isolated if there were a drought, I'm sorry to point out that the economic consequences would be felt country wide.
The seasons are precious, sunshine in spring is fantastic, so are showers and cold weather, and windy weather and warm weather. But all the same weather, every day? Every season? That's a battle not worth winning.
Updated CFSv2 pressure anomalies for April continue to suggest high pressure to north west.
Very little rain on offer this morning from GFS and high pressure build's for the Easter weekend
The 00zs from GFS, UKMO and ECM this morning all show high pressure easing its way West to the West of Ireland by Thursday. The very warm temperatures currently will ebb away in the far North from tomorrow and the South by Friday. Thereafter, UKMO sinks the High South towards the Azores but maintaining a ridge NE across the South keeping fine but less warm conditions here but hardly cold. GFS gradually brings a Northerly down South on consecutive attempts and eventually succeeds late in FI with rather cool but dry weather persisting for many though increasingly showery in the East in the far reaches. The Ensembles though show the operational a bit of a cold outlier from April 6th with many members maintaining dry conditions in London until at least the 7th. ECM finally takes High pressure right away West to a ridge in mid Atlantic allowing a gentle chilly Northerly over the weekend. The far NE could see some showers but a lot of dry weather maintained elsewhere. Late in its run a high pressure ridge collapses away East from Southern Britain and the Atlantic takes hold with some rain in the NW. However, as always in this setup the NW would revert to its status quo of capturing the rain while Southern and Eastern areas see very little. Nevertheless, it is a slightly different option than shown of late. More runs needed.
Aye, as has been the signal for several days now, high pressure gives up the ghost next week and it turns cooler and unsettled in time for Easter. And rain for most if not all. With snow for some hills a distinct possibility too.
Edited by user 27 March 2012 11:58:56(UTC)
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easter remains well in fi but the trend has long been for a cool period around that timescale. however, as time ticks down, the favoured outcome would be for the higher heights to reassert themselves from the west and for the cold plunge to be pushed east. at some point this repeating pattern has to break and maybe the easter weekend is the time.
Now your talking.
What we really need is lots of prolonged heavy rainfall.......!
I wasn't meaning weeks and weeks of the stuff Matty, but it would help alittle and even with the local flower in bloom project going on round here as the soil is so dry.
GFS 12z now has high pressure lasting out to Good Friday for England and Wales before it turns cooler from Easter Saturday but this is well out in FI so anything could happen yet.
Any rain fall tonight is well out in FI with nothing on offer in a reliable time frame
An impressive GFS 12z FI today. Convective showers widespread and potent in the north(east).
IF we end up with a massive block to our NW, its proximity will be very important for determining the shower extent and intensity.
Often such blocking tends to be followed by high pressure near the UK but tending to back west again (in my experience, anyway) with a reload or two possible in the time between now and mid-May. Potentially we could then break out of the "cool blocked" pattern in time for summer... you never know!
Before dreaming of tremendous April showers lasting into May only to be followed by a splended summer, one should not that ECM has been quite persistent in breaking down a northerly outbreak and setting up a Euro block rather than a Greenland block. That isn't too hard to do with the Atlantic tracking south and it could lead to insane warmth once again - there's a fine line that divides what would evolve into a chilly pattern and what would evolve into a very warm pattern.
Either way we can get some useful rain but in both cases high pressure needs to let troughing get close enough to the UK. ECM's tropical blowtorch idea from the end of the 00z run could deliver a right old deluge if the trough gets far enough east, although as Matty says, we don't want loads of rain in a short period of time, rather a more moderated amount for a few weeks.
MetO 12z looks pretty chilly;
ECM at 144h sort of follows UKMO
GFS seems to be on its own
Edited by user 27 March 2012 18:59:32(UTC)
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ECM is cold but settled with more high pressure for its late runs tonight