I would take this for the rest of spring and summer
Quite possibly because you are daft and have not noticed much of the country is already in drought.
I think many would take that. It's a temperature forecast and nothing to do with drought
Heat waves and drought are not completely unrelated?
If all year all you wish for is mild, dry, high pressure dominated weather and then that is what you have, it is perhaps not a surprise if drought conditions follow?
And certainly a warmer than average, sunny spring and summer would be great. Lovely sunny days by the beach are great. Just a shame if it follows a drier than average winter, spring, summer, autumn, winter... Ideally it would be good to have cooler and wetter weather in late autumn, winter, early spring (rather than the options of dry, dusty, drought through summer, or a wet and cool summer which avoids a drought, but is not much fun).
For the remainder of spring at least CFSv2 (for what it;s worth) looks average
It's not hard to see that you have issues with Gavin. I suggest that if you have a problem just ignore him
As for heat and drought, my point stands. If you look back July 1977, that was a very dry month but also cool due to the proximity of HP feeding in cold winds from the north and similarly heat can often bring much thundery rainfall. The only point I would concede is that more heat can lead to greater evaporation rates but even that may depend on ambient humidity and windspeed
From reading around on the Netweather forum I gather that there is good support from the global teleconnections for high pressure to hang around to the west and NW of the UK while low pressure transfers into Scandinavia and makes itself home there until around the middle part of the month, maybe even for longer than that.
I'm still thinking that a mid-Atlantic block may build soon after low pressure has set up shop in Scandinavia, with the Atlantic dribbling over the top (there is little in the models to indicate a strong NW flow of potent Atlantic storms).
I suggest that if you have a problem just ignore him
That's exactly what I did.
I'm not worried about drought at all, but I'm fustrated by the lack of 'visible' weather. We all have our preferences, but day after day of sunny skies, no rain and no wind of any kind at all is the epitome of 'dull' in my opinion.
I hate rainy days.
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So what do we have here... a cool and often unsettled April is signalled, with troughing established to our NE and E and also to our S and SW.
Onto May, and the model shows the troughing to our E and NE no longer dominant, with high pressure tending to build there instead. A signal for troughing to our south remains, suggesting that we may see a fair few easterlies and even some SE'rlies which could bring hot conditions if we avoid the rain and showers associated with the continental lows. We'd be in with the best chance in years of seeing some notable thundery outbreaks IMO.
A (sort of) breif word on what's suggested for the summer... mid to high latitude blocking is signalled for, with the UK right on the edge in June and August, a little less so in July as high pressure has more influence. The north could do well out of that for dry, useable weather at least, with some easterly blasts of very warm or hot air possible. The south looks more changeable but with some warm temperatures and the odd heatwave quite possible, given the variability that the mean anomalies account for.
The CFS v2 model has updated and the prospects for May have changed quite a bit from the last update, in which a positive anomaly was shown to our east, whereas now it's shown to our NW, suggesting a contined dominance of the current tendency for low pressure to move across the UK.The extent to which it does so is not clear, but there is a hint that it will tend to locate itself more to our SW, near the Azores.With that in mind, May could see a mix of cool and warm - even very warm - periods, depending on the exact position and orientation of the major synoptic features.
Looking beyond a month out, and the v2 CFS model continues its trait of being rather vague and frankly not of much use. The signal for high latitude blocking in June does not build much confidence in fine conditions that month, however. July looks more promising with the chance of some continental high pressure getting in on the act, while August could be a cracker based on this latest update alone.
Its a fact that these outlooks have changed quite a bit with each new update. Considering a whole string of updates and looking for trends may produce a clearer signal, however the big change in the predicted May setup gives me cause to think otherwise.
I'm going to be watching the shorter range models for signs of low pressure digging down more towards the Azores, with high pressure moving closer to the UK as a result. It's come and gone of late, with the recent trend being for low pressure to attack more from the west or southwest but with those troughs becoming slow moving over the UK rather than to our SW.
The later we get through the spring the greater the possibilities for warmth over the UK. With the continent warming up it wont be long before an easterly ceases to be cool and cloudy and becomes hot and sunny (for western parts)
May 2008 looks to have been a month characterised by low pressure over the Azores and HP to the north of the UK. Winds were often easterly but it still ended up a very warm month.
Edited by user 10 April 2012 23:11:16(UTC)
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If you take this as gospel then according to the latest update we're going to continue to see more in the way of northerly airflows in May, but with high pressure often closer by than seen during April.
Then, June looks warm but showery to my eye, that being an average scenario and allowing for some decent hot, sunny spells but also some wet, thundery spells.
July suggests westerlies and with the Atlantic tracking south of normal to give a mediocre month, perhaps even a dire one, the latter more likely the further north you go.
As for August... oh dear
April 2008 was cool and showery and that was followed by a poor summer. Could this year be similar, but with a much better June? That would be okay as far as drought concerns go, but even so, I'm not liking the idea of yet another dissapointing July and August.
Its a good thing CFS doesn't have a great track record... but wait, this is the CFS v2 model! It got April pretty much spot on from about a month ahead and I never saw it before then, so I've no idea how good it is.
The BCC model is showing a warmer, drier than average summer for the UK, while Europe is on the cool side and less settled:
Meanwhile, the CFS v2 model has changed its May anomaly to bring a more settled picture to the UK, followed by a mean pattern in June that could allow us to be hot at times but also unsettled at other times as troughs become slow moving to the west. Some big plume potential there and this has been the theme in the last few updates of the model. July is now very unclear while August continues to show a signal for expansive northern blocking.
The CFSv2 model is really keen on this idea of easterlies dominating for May and June this year. As I've said before, its a dangerous game to play for the south, safer for the north, with the potential for significant hot shots or even a proper heatwave at some point.
The old CFS model is in agreement for May and shows a similar setup for June, but with the high more to our NE and E, if anything indicating an even more volatile pattern in which there could be some seriously potent thundery outbreaks.
For July and August, the two versions of the model disagree; the former shows a decent sort of July possible and then a tragic August, while the latter more or less reverses the sequence to give a summer that starts and ends on a similar note but is quite different in the middle... a sort of summer sandwich.
The new CFS model hasn't updated for a few days now, but the old one has and you know what, it delivers a decent June setup and a nearly brilliant August pattern as well, with July not too far behind.
As for next month, well, the prediction remains the same; anomalous heights focused to our west and most of all to our NE, also somewhat to our NW. This suggests that if we see a Greenland High early in the month as the current GFS and ECM runs are showing, then it shouldn't be with us for too long.
For about a month now, the theme of blocking to our NE for the summer has built across both versions of the CFS model (who knows if the v2 model will still have it when it next updates... I imagine it will for June at least). June has been looking increasingly fine and potentially hot, while the rest of the summer looks capable of being notably warmer than average, if potentially rather wet at times. That said, the extent of the high pressure dominance during July and August has been increasing with time as well.
I realise that these long term models aren't terribly reliable, but it is at least encouraging to see them sticking to, and to some extent firming up on the warm/hot summer scenario rather than flip-flopping from one outlook to another.
The current model outputs point towards a decidedly mixed first half of May, with high pressure closer to hand but unable to prevent troughing from affecting the UK from time to time. MVH did a great post on the pattern that looks likely to dominate.
Northern blocking continues to be a strong theme but it remains unclear just where the blocking will be at particular times this month. It's position can give a wide array of conditions across the UK, from cool and wet (seemingly easy to get) to warm and dry (seemingly very hard to get).
CFS continues to show the northern blocking holding strong for much of May before beginning to relax come June, however it still looks like it may deliver the odd few days of poor weather early on next month, before we possible see mid-latitude highs dominating the scene.
Where is the Summer 2012 discussion topic?
Well for Iberia I'm forecasting a Hot June, and up and down July and a four season August.
expecting heat waves for Centrl, Eastern and Meriodinal Europe, for UK a normal Summer, sometimes rainy but also TS. Best Month June and half july
sorry of topic
A snowy cold March followed by a just below ave April with plenty of 'April showers and a cool wet May
Dont shoot just yet
A cool spring, well the CFS charts currently show anything but a cool spring,
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif - 3 monthly
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbMon.gif - Precipitation
Good ol' CFS
The way this month is turning out it wouldn't surprise me if in this location we see the highest Spring temperature in March which was recorded at 20.1C. Can't remember a time in the recent past when that happened before this year, strange but interesting. Goes to show how poor it has been in terms of warmth after that glorious end to March.
Edited by user 14 May 2012 18:17:20(UTC)
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Now that we are officially into summer (although you wouldn't think it judging by the weather we've had!), I'm going to lock this thread and move it across to the classic threads forum. Thanks for all your contributions over the last few months.