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Solar Cycle.
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Gray-Wolf Offline
#161 Posted : 15 July 2012 21:36:30(UTC)
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'Bout time to Dev as this KP 6 Solar storm is fecking messin; with me head......

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VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
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Steam Fog Offline
#162 Posted : 20 July 2012 09:40:05(UTC)
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Another steep drop.

http://www.solen.info/solar/
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Steam Fog Offline
#163 Posted : 23 July 2012 06:51:12(UTC)
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And a further fall today.
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Devonian Offline
#164 Posted : 23 July 2012 07:03:02(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
And a further fall today.

Indeed, though I'm not sure what a few days say about a solar cycle any more than a few days weather say something about the cycle of weather over a year? both have marked ups and downs.
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Steam Fog Offline
#165 Posted : 23 July 2012 08:12:37(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Devonian Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
And a further fall today.

Indeed, though I'm not sure what a few days say about a solar cycle any more than a few days weather say something about the cycle of weather over a year? both have marked ups and downs.



What am odd thing to try to pick me up on in a thread which looks at the solar cycle? Just commenting that there has been a pretty steep drop. As we approach the maximum rather than repeating the high levels (not that high really) at the end of last year, there have been a number of plunges. This of course has an impact on the shape of the cycle when averaged out. Obviously you know that. So I can't really see what you are objecting to?
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doctormog Online
#166 Posted : 23 July 2012 08:37:44(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Another steep drop.

http://www.solen.info/solar/



Yes, I think your point is a valid one :)

It is not just one day or a couple of days, the whole trend (currently and recently) in the present solar cycle is not a "ramping up" towards the maximum which one might expect.

Either way I guess that can change in coming months but, although not extremely quiet, it is not necessarily what I would expect to see on the approach to a solar max - based on the last handful of solar cycles. Perhaps that simply suggests that the current cycle is not like the last handful of solar cycles. It certainly looks like being less active that's for sure.
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Devonian Offline
#167 Posted : 23 July 2012 09:34:16(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Another steep drop.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Yes, I think your point is a valid one :) It is not just one day or a couple of days, the whole trend (currently and recently) in the present solar cycle is not a "ramping up" towards the maximum which one might expect. Either way I guess that can change in coming months but, although not extremely quiet, it is not necessarily what I would expect to see on the approach to a solar max - based on the last handful of solar cycles. Perhaps that simply suggests that the current cycle is not like the last handful of solar cycles. It certainly looks like being less active that's for sure.

It does and that is the current prediction.
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doctormog Online
#168 Posted : 23 July 2012 09:40:50(UTC)
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It is indeed. I was looking back at the archives and I noticed that 6 years ago NASA had very different expectations. I wonder if developments over the last five years have helped solar cycle predictions or complicated them?

http://science.nasa.gov/...nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/

I'm hoping for the peak to come in winter, for purely selfish reasons. I would love to see and photograph a few good aurorae!
Michael

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Younger Dryas User is suspended until 20/06/2013 10:38:44(UTC)
#169 Posted : 29 July 2012 17:08:37(UTC)
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http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif

The cycle looks like peaking at well under the level expected (so far anyway). July's number is so far coming in close to May's. So, with Maunder Minimum 2 already expected after this cycle, we may well now be looking at conditions colder than Maunder Minimum 1 in the years after 2016/2017

Edited by user 29 July 2012 17:10:15(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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RobSnowman Offline
#170 Posted : 29 July 2012 19:35:40(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas Go to Quoted Post

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif

The cycle looks like peaking at well under the level expected (so far anyway). July's number is so far coming in close to May's. So, with Maunder Minimum 2 already expected after this cycle, we may well now be looking at conditions colder than Maunder Minimum 1 in the years after 2016/2017

Going off that chart you only have to look back at the previous cycle to see how quickly things can change...ie large increases in sunspot number from month to month. So I don't think any judgement should be made either way, beyond what has been predicted by the scientists. 

But you never know.

Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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Solar Cycles Offline
#171 Posted : 30 July 2012 08:21:15(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: RobSnowman Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas Go to Quoted Post

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif

The cycle looks like peaking at well under the level expected (so far anyway). July's number is so far coming in close to May's. So, with Maunder Minimum 2 already expected after this cycle, we may well now be looking at conditions colder than Maunder Minimum 1 in the years after 2016/2017

Going off that chart you only have to look back at the previous cycle to see how quickly things can change...ie large increases in sunspot number from month to month. So I don't think any judgement should be made either way, beyond what has been predicted by the scientists. 

But you never know.

Whether we have already surpassed Solar max is unkown I would say, this cycle is certainly catching everyone off guard. If we haven't yet reached Solar max, then I wouldn't think it would that much higher than anything previously seen during this cycle.
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Steam Fog Offline
#172 Posted : 16 August 2012 05:52:30(UTC)
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Mid June, July and now August have all seen steep drops in solar activity before rising at the end of June and July.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html

Overall keeping activity for a solar maximum very low.
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Devonian Offline
#173 Posted : 16 August 2012 07:09:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Mid June, July and now August have all seen steep drops in solar activity before rising at the end of June and July. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html Overall keeping activity for a solar maximum very low.

You are indeed right, but if you look at this chart from the same site then it seems the cycle is indeed still building towards it peak?

Edited by user 16 August 2012 07:23:04(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Steam Fog Offline
#174 Posted : 16 August 2012 18:17:05(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Devonian Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Mid June, July and now August have all seen steep drops in solar activity before rising at the end of June and July. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html Overall keeping activity for a solar maximum very low.

You are indeed right, but if you look at this chart from the same site then it seems the cycle is indeed still building towards it peak?



You seem keen to take issue (again), but I simply cannot for the life of me see with what? It's a bit tiresome.
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John Mason Offline
#175 Posted : 16 August 2012 18:27:33(UTC)
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Peak early next year AFAIK....
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Steam Fog Offline
#176 Posted : 16 August 2012 18:28:56(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: John Mason Go to Quoted Post
Peak early next year AFAIK....


That's what I've read too.
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Gandalf The White Offline
#177 Posted : 16 August 2012 18:28:57(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Devonian Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Mid June, July and now August have all seen steep drops in solar activity before rising at the end of June and July. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html Overall keeping activity for a solar maximum very low.

You are indeed right, but if you look at this chart from the same site then it seems the cycle is indeed still building towards it peak?

You seem keen to take issue (again), but I simply cannot for the life of me see with what? It's a bit tiresome.

I thought that all Dev was doing was agreeing with you but putting the day to day fluctuations into a wider context in terms of the overall cycle?

You are correct - activity is running lower than in recent cycles.  The Wiki site has a helpful graph covering 400 years and this suggests that the last few decades saw rather higher levels of activity.  Certainly we seem to be in a quieter period but comparison on a longer timescale gives, perhaps, a slightly different story?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png

Lest you misinterpet, I am not taking issue here, merely commentiing.

Edited by user 16 August 2012 18:29:34(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Steam Fog Offline
#178 Posted : 16 August 2012 18:31:09(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Devonian Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Mid June, July and now August have all seen steep drops in solar activity before rising at the end of June and July. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html Overall keeping activity for a solar maximum very low.

You are indeed right, but if you look at this chart from the same site then it seems the cycle is indeed still building towards it peak?

You seem keen to take issue (again), but I simply cannot for the life of me see with what? It's a bit tiresome.

I thought that all Dev was doing was agreeing with you but putting the day to day fluctuations into a wider context in terms of the overall cycle?

You are correct - activity is running lower than in recent cycles.  The Wiki site has a helpful graph covering 400 years and this suggests that the last few decades saw rather higher levels of activity.  Certainly we seem to be in a quieter period but comparison on a longer timescale gives, perhaps, a slightly different story?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png

Lest you misinterpet, I am not taking issue here, merely commentiing.



Fair enough. "You are indeed right, but..." sounded like taking issue. Could certainly have read it wrong.
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Devonian Offline
#179 Posted : 16 August 2012 19:11:22(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Devonian Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Mid June, July and now August have all seen steep drops in solar activity before rising at the end of June and July. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html Overall keeping activity for a solar maximum very low.

You are indeed right, but if you look at this chart from the same site then it seems the cycle is indeed still building towards it peak?

You seem keen to take issue (again), but I simply cannot for the life of me see with what? It's a bit tiresome.

I thought that all Dev was doing was agreeing with you but putting the day to day fluctuations into a wider context in terms of the overall cycle?

You are correct - activity is running lower than in recent cycles.  The Wiki site has a helpful graph covering 400 years and this suggests that the last few decades saw rather higher levels of activity.  Certainly we seem to be in a quieter period but comparison on a longer timescale gives, perhaps, a slightly different story?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png

Lest you misinterpet, I am not taking issue here, merely commentiing.

Fair enough. "You are indeed right, but..." sounded like taking issue. Could certainly have read it wrong.

What Gandalf says. Not taking issue just adding some further context.
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Steam Fog Offline
#180 Posted : 22 August 2012 07:50:10(UTC)
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Pretty quiet since the first week of August.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html

Nine months since the peak of daily activity.
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