Morning all...
Well I hold good news, well depending on your terminology of good news that is. I've looked at the latest EC 32 day info this morning and the signal for a pattern change later in November and into early December is still there and in a big way!
Up to the middle of month high pressure persists to the E and this maintains relatively mild conditions, driest in the E, wettest in the W etc. However, beyond mid-month what the model is signalling is for high pressure to migrate and there is then the development of a +ve pressure anom to the N or NW of the UK during the final week of November and into early December, as low pressure becomes dominant to the S. In essence the final week of the 32 day forecast is signalling a pattern similar to that of last year with E or NE'lies across the UK and there is a dramatic drop in temperature forecast during the final quarter of the forecast period.
Clearly I put emphasis on this model signalling a potential pattern change this time last week and whilst any longer term model is open to change, I do have quite a decent liking to this model as it has picked up trends at times throughout this year weeks in advance. Clearly this post will be fascinating to read and come back to in around 3 weeks time to see what is actually on the horizon for the end of November, but IF this model is picking up this pattern change correctly then it would seem that another dramatic turn-around to something far more wintry is likely towards the end of November onwards...
Time will tell!...
Matt.
exeter aren't convinced by that run Matt - judging by today's update which should be driven by that ecm 30 dayer. just mentioning a return to average conditions as we head from nov into dec.
I eagerly await next weeks seasonal probablity charts from Hadley centre.In September they were slightly -ve in October neutral/ slightly postive.I certainly would give more weight to METO than CFS charts and ceratinly tons more weight than most of the recent amateur efforts-though matts ECMW news raises the spirits!
Clearly just the GFS Det and most certainly earlier than the what the ECMWF 32 day is signalling but what a chart!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png
How's that for a pattern change!
M.
06Z has reverted back to high pressure been closer by, will 12Z follow?
Edited by user 04 November 2011 17:24:28(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
No hint of snow even for high ground from the met office so maybe the ECM 32 day model is not showing enough hints of a pattern change yet to convince the met office.
The Met 30 dayer does talk about things turning cooler late in the month - But only cooling down to average. They are playing it safe as you would expect given we're probably two or three weeks away from any change.
If ECM is still showing a big switch late in the month next Friday, I would would expect a more interesting update.
Edited by user 04 November 2011 17:20:19(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Edited by user 04 November 2011 17:48:43(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Hopefully any cold 'snap' this November won't be as 'severe' as last November, because I don't want winter to end in late January again.
I hope it will be more severe and continue until February.
As for the period up to Christmas, there would be some who would say it couldn't be exactly like last year again. I agree. That's why I'm hoping for it to be colder
Having had the second coldest November week and second coldest December CET, it would be good to go one better on both of those counts this year
Edited by user 04 November 2011 18:03:47(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Pie in the sky I imagine, but boy do I wish
Will Hand over on UK Sci has posted that Exeter have hinted at a Major Strat warming event, he didnt say when but that may help with a pattern change
Yes, so the indications are now for a severe cold spell in the near future
I don't see any evidence of the start warming,we're below average for the time of year? Maybe they know something we don't?
Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.
White Christmas 2011
They are just gimics. They mean nothing.
They have a lot of front, on that page.
I trust it's a cold front.
Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif
I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.
Seems to be a bit of an unhelpful spin placed on the chart, but that doesn't surprise me.
That chart shows a perfectly average anomaly for winter. So could be a little on the cold side could be on the mild side. Could be very cold in part of the month could be very mild in another.
whatever they end up showing the opposit always seems to happen