Why does it have to be cold and snowy or mild and wet?
Why not a nice dry, sunny winter with some frosts but not especially cold? Just for a change?
Edit: though that said, I'm thinking that IMBY at least, a wet winter would be very welcome - before the water table drops down to Australia .......
Edited by user 06 August 2011 11:00:59(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
I wouldnt mind mild, wet and windy with some good old winter storms
Happy for it to get cold again when me heating bill wont be 500 quid for 3 months
Increased solar activity may well reduce the chances of colder weather this winter.
not sure we're really going through much of an increase in solar activity are we? Although it's on a slight increase it still looks low to me.
http://www.solen.info/solar/
Don't you dare say that
Right, the sledge is on eBay.
Only the UK will be effected but Europe to N America their cold and snowy winter will carry on business as usual.
"...This predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years." (http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml)
Even if there is a slight upsurge at present, surely it's the likelihood that it will be the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years that would have the influence if there were any?
What makes you think that? Surely duller, colder summers in the UK increase the probability of a colder, snowier winter, that has certainly been the case for the past three years, smiliar to the hot summers of the 1990's and 2000's were followed by mild winters.
I would think the chances of a milder winter are increased in the UK and other parts of western Europe. I'm not sure what the impact on Eastern European and North American winters is.PS: I'm not saying I think this coming winter will be mild in the UK.
Cold summers at the end of the 80's ended up with very mild winters. I also wouldn't call the winter of 95 mild either
And your point is?
Just saying that most (being the key word) of the winters during the 1990's and early 2000's were mild, and the summers were warmer then, then they are now.
Edited by user 07 August 2011 10:24:34(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
My point is, there is no link. For all we know, Its the summer following a type of winter that is affected, not the other way round
I'll call it as I see it. If people don't like it then tough. There will be plenty of long range forecasters going for a cold winter this year regardless of what I issue, so people will always be able to find a forecast to hang their hopes on.
Edited by user 07 August 2011 11:51:03(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Ok, thats a sweeping statement, excuse me for asking, but why.Talk in the grapevine, etc.Last winter the thing that impresed me, was that the 3/4th week in Nov the 30 day MO forcast stayed cold for 3/4 weeks and carried on, they never backtracked. Never seen that much confidence from them over cold.
....because there are more lrfs than ever, and the last 3 winters have been cold. I'm sure some of the forecasters will take a guess and call 2011/12 as the 'big one'.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif
This will obviously change a lot before we get even to October, but what a lovely chart thati s!