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Gandalf The White Offline
#901 Posted : 11 September 2012 09:42:25(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: John Mason Go to Quoted Post
Latest:

8th: 3,674,844
9th: 3,695,313
10th: 3,671,406 (uncorrected)

We surely are somewhere near the bottom but 100k increases seem unlikely until a bit later - values tend to plateau for a couple of weeks at least, most seasons.

Yes, the end of September is the earliest date this century for a 100k plus increase.

The figure for 10th is yesterday's and I suspect is the final value - for some reason they're running a day behind at the moment.

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

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John S2 Offline
#902 Posted : 11 September 2012 14:46:22(UTC)
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NSIDC extent has fallen to a new record low. 10th Sept = 3.466 million sq km
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dinner Offline
#903 Posted : 11 September 2012 19:43:08(UTC)
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Crysphere today showing the sea ice area being 2.3682. Albeit worrying seeing as it has been reduced to five digits, but with the end of the melt season nearing it does not look like the sea ice will reach zero.
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Steam Fog Offline
#904 Posted : 11 September 2012 19:51:27(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: dinner Go to Quoted Post

Crysphere today showing the sea ice area being 2.3682. Albeit worrying seeing as it has been reduced to five digits, but with the end of the melt season nearing it does not look like the sea ice will reach zero.



Possibly silly question, but what is Crysphere?
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doctormog Online
#905 Posted : 11 September 2012 19:52:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: dinner Go to Quoted Post

Crysphere today showing the sea ice area being 2.3682. Albeit worrying seeing as it has been reduced to five digits, but with the end of the melt season nearing it does not look like the sea ice will reach zero.



I take it you mean 5 significant figures as in 2.3682 million square kilometres?

No-one (with any credibility) was, as far as I know even remotely suggesting that sea ice would reach zero this year, it was bordering on the impossible.

It is possible that the overal ice melt is just about done for the season but I would not be surprised to see a few ups and downs in coming days - let's hope it I'd more "ups" than downs!

Edit: Mr Fog, Crysphere refers to The Cryosphere Today website http://arctic.atmos.uiuc...phere/index.noshade.html which (I think) uses NSIDC ice data to produce a range of ice charts for the Arctic and Antarctic. It's a good site for comparisons.

Edited by user 11 September 2012 19:56:33(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Michael

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PK2 Offline
#906 Posted : 11 September 2012 19:54:55(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: dinner Go to Quoted Post

Crysphere today showing the sea ice area being 2.3682. Albeit worrying seeing as it has been reduced to five digits, but with the end of the melt season nearing it does not look like the sea ice will reach zero.

Possibly silly question, but what is Crysphere?
Typo of Cryosphere so he's referring to Cryosphere Today.


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
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Steam Fog Offline
#907 Posted : 11 September 2012 19:57:05(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: PK2 Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: dinner Go to Quoted Post

Crysphere today showing the sea ice area being 2.3682. Albeit worrying seeing as it has been reduced to five digits, but with the end of the melt season nearing it does not look like the sea ice will reach zero.

Possibly silly question, but what is Crysphere?
Typo of Cryosphere so he's referring to Cryosphere Today.


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/


Thanks!
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John Mason Offline
#908 Posted : 12 September 2012 09:36:07(UTC)
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Jaxa going down again:

8th: 3,674,844
9th: 3,695,313
10th:3,671,406

11th - uncorrected - 3,591,250
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Gandalf The White Offline
#909 Posted : 12 September 2012 13:27:25(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: John Mason Go to Quoted Post
Jaxa going down again:

8th: 3,674,844
9th: 3,695,313
10th:3,671,406

11th - uncorrected - 3,591,250

John, for some reason that site is now running a day behind and I am fairly certain that the numbers posted are the correct(ed) values. Certainly the value for the 9th hasn't been changed.

In which case we had a loss of 80k sq km yesterday, which is exceptional for September (nothing above 60k since 2002)

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

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dinner Offline
#910 Posted : 12 September 2012 15:37:42(UTC)
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A result of the tropical storm?

 

http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/
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John S2 Offline
#911 Posted : 12 September 2012 16:07:21(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: John Mason Go to Quoted Post
Jaxa going down again:

8th: 3,674,844
9th: 3,695,313
10th:3,671,406

11th - uncorrected - 3,591,250

John, for some reason that site is now running a day behind and I am fairly certain that the numbers posted are the correct(ed) values. Certainly the value for the 9th hasn't been changed.

In which case we had a loss of 80k sq km yesterday, which is exceptional for September (nothing above 60k since 2002)

NSIDC extent is also still falling. Sept 11th = 3.42 million sq km
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dinner Offline
#912 Posted : 12 September 2012 16:16:02(UTC)
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Looks like the Arctic could be on it's last legs at this point.

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

 

The minimum could be close to zero this year and with the reduced thickness at this point who knows what next year could yield.
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Gandalf The White Offline
#913 Posted : 12 September 2012 16:19:17(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: dinner Go to Quoted Post

Looks like the Arctic could be on it's last legs at this point.

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

 

The minimum could be close to zero this year and with the reduced thickness at this point who knows what next year could yield.

No Dinner, that is not going to happen.

The Arctic ice sheet will start to grow sometime in the next two weeks - the latest dates this century for the minimum are 22nd and 24th September in 2005 and 2007 respectively.

It is certainly a gloomy situation but it isn't as bad as you keep suggesting.

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

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doctormog Online
#914 Posted : 12 September 2012 20:28:51(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: dinner Go to Quoted Post

Looks like the Arctic could be on it's last legs at this point.

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

 

The minimum could be close to zero this year and with the reduced thickness at this point who knows what next year could yield.



Less than zero? ;)

GTW I am not sure that the IJIS figue is corrected yet (i.e. the loss may be a good deal less than 80k)

Dinner, no matter how many times you say it, the ice area will not end up anywhere near zero this year (unless something absolutely and totally incredible happens)
Michael

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Hilton Aberdeen weather site
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Gandalf The White Offline
#915 Posted : 12 September 2012 20:37:37(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: dinner Go to Quoted Post

Looks like the Arctic could be on it's last legs at this point.

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

 

The minimum could be close to zero this year and with the reduced thickness at this point who knows what next year could yield.

Less than zero? ;) GTW I am not sure that the IJIS figue is corrected yet (i.e. the loss may be a good deal less than 80k) Dinner, no matter how many times you say it, the ice area will not end up anywhere near zero this year (unless something absolutely and totally incredible happens)

Hi Michael

For some reason the site is now being updated a day in arrears and since the change (at the weekend) it seems that the value posted is the final (corrected) one.  I don't know why they changed unless it's because the 'same day' value is always altered - perhaps they decided it was misleading?  (the only way to get the corrected value seems to be via the database download).

Anyway, for two days it has been the final reading - let's see what value the morrow brings.

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

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Gray-Wolf Offline
#916 Posted : 12 September 2012 20:56:15(UTC)
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JAXA is showing a sharp dip on the graph though? We have seen an uptick in the Greenland ice sector ice area (never good) so we may be seeing some export along with that 'odd' open water extending close to the pole (warm river discharge from Russia?).

Koyaanisqatsi

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
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Gandalf The White Offline
#917 Posted : 12 September 2012 23:10:36(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

JAXA is showing a sharp dip on the graph though? We have seen an uptick in the Greenland ice sector ice area (never good) so we may be seeing some export along with that 'odd' open water extending close to the pole (warm river discharge from Russia?).

Yes, G-W.  The debate was about whether the figure was provisional or final - but certainly it's a large decrease for mid-September. 

3.5m still looks a possibility.

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

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John Mason Offline
#918 Posted : 13 September 2012 09:04:06(UTC)
John Mason

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Jaxa definitely going down again:

8th: 3,674,844
9th: 3,695,313
10th:3,671,406
11th 3,603,281 corrected from provisional of 3,591,250 and a remarkable fall for the time of year

12th (provisional) = 3,585,781
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Quantum Offline
#919 Posted : 13 September 2012 15:24:37(UTC)
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Interesting comparison, thickness of this year compared to last (PIPS model)

On the canadian archipelego the ice does seem to be much thicker this year than last year, I personally think the ice will be much tougher to crack in this last refuge and I would bet against estimates of an ice free arctic by 2015.

 

Edited by user 13 September 2012 15:25:17(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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AIMSIR Offline
#920 Posted : 13 September 2012 15:34:11(UTC)
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I find the correlation between ice area loss and ice area gain ,between the Arctic and the Antactic interesting.
It seems we might have a record breaker in the Antarctic also this year.(in an opposing manner)
Any Ideas on this guys?.

You are correct Quantum. btw.some areas have shown increased thickness.

Edited by user 13 September 2012 15:37:28(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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