Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles

We also have to remember that stratospheric warmings don't always guarantee cold weather for the UK and also we can still have cold spells even with a raging Polar Vortex.

I think it's pretty difficult to get blocking over Scandi or Greenland with a strong PV, isn't it?   You might get transient blasts of polar maritime or even briefly Arctic airmasses but the pattern tends to be mobile with a strong PV.

Stratospheric warming does depend to an extent on where it sets up and, as importantly, how strongly it propogates down into the troposphere.  I do think there's much more likelihood of the dice landing in our favour with a SSW event than with a strong PV.

Not long to wait now - another month or so.