We also have to remember that stratospheric warmings don't always guarantee cold weather for the UK and also we can still have cold spells even with a raging Polar Vortex.
I think it's pretty difficult to get blocking over Scandi or Greenland with a strong PV, isn't it? You might get transient blasts of polar maritime or even briefly Arctic airmasses but the pattern tends to be mobile with a strong PV.
Stratospheric warming does depend to an extent on where it sets up and, as importantly, how strongly it propogates down into the troposphere. I do think there's much more likelihood of the dice landing in our favour with a SSW event than with a strong PV.
Not long to wait now - another month or so.
QBO,PDO,AO,NAO, PV, ENSO,AMO, SST, SSW, downwelling,upwelling, propagating, dipole, tripole - it's that season again
Edited by user 17 October 2012 10:56:04(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
[/quote]As it is that season again I have returned to the site for the winter months bring it on, I can't wait !