Interesting change in ECM this morning FI wise, much more of a mobile theme and a breakdown into next week. This is more in line with GFS from last night - did GFS pick up on a theme or will the 'Indian Summer' be back in force tonight?
Good morning. A new thread and a look at the 00zs from today.
All models show High pressure moving slowly East over the area as we move through the rest of the week. The far north will be influenced by a strong Westerly flow with severe gales for the far North for a time and some rain too. Further south a weak cold front crossing SE today clears later leaving very light winds, high pressure and fine, sunny conditions by day when it will become warm. Nights in the South though will be a little chilly with some early morning mistiness. By Sunday the Euro models in particular begin to show signs of change.
GFS shows a more unsettled beginning to next week as a trough moves slowly NE over the UK with some rain for all in a SW Breze. By midweek High pressure rebuilds near Ireland with fine conditions returning to many though rather cooler than of late. FI then shows High pressure migrating away to the East and Northeast with Low pressure edging North from France eventually absorbed by deep Atlantic Low pressure moving in fromt he West. Deep FI then shows much windier weather with rain at times as Low pressure to the NW pushes troughs across all areas at times.
The GFS Ensembles illustrate the operatonal quite well this morning as the period after the 11th begins a slow decline to 850's nearer to the long term mean and an increase in rainfall events nationally.
The Jet Stream is sown streaming East over Northern Scotland for the next three days or so before it disrupts somewhat as we move deeper into next week.
UKMO at 144hrs shows a trough in association with Low pressure North of Scotland swinging East over Britain bringing a band of rain across the UK late sunday and early Monday followed by clearer fresher conditions as winds turn NW.
ECM too shows a more unsettled conclusion to it's run as the Jet Stream moves back South and Low pressure's position over or near to the UK by midweek with attendant rain and showers becoming widespread and heavy in places. Consequently things will be turning rather cooler by then.
In Summary it looks like the weather is set fair from now until Sunday away from the extreme North. Dry, bright and reasonably warm conditions should be enjoyed for the vast majority of the UK between now and Sunday. Thereafter, things are shown by all models to become more unsettled with rain and wind becoming more prevalent for most areas as we move deeper into next week.
The ECM this morning looks a little progressive. Its quite conceivable that unsettled weather will attempt to come in from the west but I think its extent will be more limited than perhaps suggested at face value right now. UKMO even more so. In the meantime for the next several days some glorious weather to enjoy
Edited by user 04 September 2012 08:57:14(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Here's todays 8-10 day video musing: Turning Unsettled Next Week? http://gavsweathervids.com/
Looks like a bit of change in the way may be on the way next week, but a long way off.
Look like next week another settled week for here on 06z. Was unsettled on 00z runs.
yup, here comes the rain again.
There are large changes from run to run at the moment so it seems we really can't be sure of anything much when it comes to the weather next week.
Best get out and enjoy this week's fine show while it's here!
Good evening. Here'a a look at today's 12zs from GFS. UKMO and ECM.
All models agree that High pressure dominates the weather over the next 4-5 days. It is shown to drift slowly East over the UK before moving off into Europe later in the weekend with a freshening SW wind. Fine and settled conditions look likely for all with sunny days and cool misty nights in the South while the North see more cloud and a little rain in the far NW as well as strong winds. Later in the weekend things begin to turn more cloudy from the West on Sunday.
GFS then shows cooler conditions as we move into next week though with a lot of dry weather about still as weak High pressure moves East over the UK to settle to the NE with increasing SE winds over the SW half of the UK. As we move through FI the weather slowly turns more unsettled and windy with rain at times and windy too later as a cold NW blast moves down across the UK late in FI before cool High pressure settles things down towards the end of the run with the risk of frost and fog at night briefly.
The GFS Ensembles show a steady cool off in the South from the 11th with some rain at times shown. Further North the fall off in uppers is quicker but more undulating thereafter. The cold plunge shown on the operational was as expected a cold outlier.
The Jet Stream continues to blow West to East over Northern Scotland. GFS predictions next week suggest the current arm of the Jet Stream flow weakens as a new arm sets up on more Southerly latitudes late next week.
UKMO shows a NW flow over the UK with low pressure out to the North. A cold front will of recently crossed bringing fresher conditions and somewhat lower temperatures but still with reasonably bright and fairly dry conditions.
ECM shows High pressure rebuilding near Scotland as we move through next week but in a cooler air mass than we currently have meaning cooler if dry weather with the risk of ground frost in the North. In the South an Easterly flow is set up with a weak Low pressure area to the South a few showers could be exported North for a time before High pressure reasserts itself everywhere briefly with dry and bright conditions before the eventual breakdown occurs on Friday week.
In Summary the weather is fairly straightforward for the next 5 days. Thereafter it is anything but with indecision between the models run to run with various evolutions showing everything from wind and rain, fine and warm, to cool and settled. I think it's a case of waiting a few more days after which a common theme should begin to develop between the models one way or another. IMO I think next week could still see quite a bit of dry weather but I think we need to make the best of the high temperatures down here in the South over the next 4-5 days as the levels they reach may not be repeated for quite a while.
Fine weather bites the dust by the 18th on here.
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm
Good morning folks. Here's my take on this morning's 00z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM.
All models suggest a decent 3-4 days as High pressure transfers slowly East over Southern Britain through the next few days. Northern areas will stay a little breezier with a West wind feeding cloud and some rain in the far North over the next 48hrs. By Sunday a front moves slowly into the UK from the West with rain for most as it trundles East through the day.
Next week sees GFS rebuild High pressure near the British Isles with things turning drier and brighter again. It will not be as warm though with cold nights bringing a risk of fog and a touch of frost for a while chiefly in the North. Late in it's run the weather turns more unsettled as Low pressure moves in off the Atlantic late in the run
The GFS Ensembles still show the 11th as the day of change to lower 850's closer to the long term mean as Low pressure becomes more dominant and the risk of rain increases in all areas.
The Jet Stream continues to blow East close to the far North of the UK before next week disrupting and breaking up somewhat as a new arm develops moving out of the states later next week.
UKMO looks the most unsettled model in its timeframe this morning as a Low pressure North of Britain extends an active trough down over the UK as it drifts only slowly East on Monday. Outbreaks of rain look likely on both days but taking a fair while to reach the far East.
ECM pushes the trough eastwards quicker on Monday with a deep Low developing in the Norwegian Sea midweek blowing a strong Westerly flow over the UK with more mobility to the weather as troughs cross East bringing rain at times with the heaviest of this being to the North as High pressure remains reasonably close to the SW. It will become cooler everywhere once this pattern sets up.
In Summary the weather remains set fair until Sunday with high pressure crossing slowly East over Britain. Next week the confusion still remains in the models in how they handle the exit of the trough bringing the change next Monday and how the following High pressure interacts with a Low pressure near Iberia or the Azores. GFS has the High moving East over Britain keeping things set fair while ECM collapses it South by low pressure to the North bringing a mobile Atlantic feed in for a while. In any event ECM too brings High pressure into the SW at the end of the run returning fine and bright weather to the South at least in time for next weekend. I think we shouldeExpect some more changes in the 12z tonight and tomorrow before a true coming together of the models for next week evolve.
Thanks Martin Your website looks great, BTW.
Seems we've got good agreement on temperatures taking a tumble next week if nothing else;
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
Proper autumnal feel next week I think.
I don't buy it, not the ECM 00z version of events anyway.
It will certainly feel a good deal cooler early next week but could be some sunshine around and shouldn't be too wet after some early rainfall and I'm not expecting a howling Northwesterly to usher in the following weekend a la ECM either.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012090500/ECM1-192.GIF?05-12
Edited by user 05 September 2012 09:53:27(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
It does look pretty anticyclonic next week, I agree, but after Monday's cold front has gone through I still think we'll be left with a very differant feel.
Yep! will feel quite different, not quite a brrrrrrrrrrrrr
Windy, damp, cool & cloudy sums up today & the last few days and te next few don't look much different. So much for settled weather.
The GFS however, over and over again, is seeing a reasonable possibility for a sharp cold plunge as the high reorientates. Photo opportunities for mountain top snow seem quite possible by midweek next week.
Its Friday 21st which now looks grim.