Originally Posted by: Chris

The old theory that a warm settled October is a good signal for a cold winter is an interesting one, and this mornings ECM set up IMO would be the kind of synoptic pattern you would want to see, stalling lows with high pressure to the east, as opposed to a big Barlette type scenario.

The later half of ECM 00z has a very October 62 feel about it

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

Obviuosly pattern matching is limited as a LRF tool, but thought I'd add it to the mix.

 

Historic charts http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

Wow! You are right - 7th October 1962, is a dead ringer for the above.

Pity pattern matching is not reliable.

The 00z GFS op run was with ECM in raising heights across many areas within the Arctic Circle.

This resulted in sustained blocking, forcing low pressure to track south and give the UK a right soaking once the Euro High had declined.

The 00z ECM run also shows blocking developing widely, with the Arctic High nosing into the far north of Greenland at 240 hours

More importantly in the shorter range, this development looks to force the Atlantic far south enough to scoop up some particularly warm, moist air from the sub-tropics, potentially including the well aged Nadine. We better hope that the Euro High turns out as strong as currently modelled and deflects the stormy conditions to our NW, else we're in for another serious deluge somewhere or other.

The evolution is one that then encourages the Euro High to build northward... but as the 06z shows, that could be cut off by the Atlantic, leaving us in a wet and wild setup.

If this seems like I'm reading into things too much, know that I'm practising for the silly season .

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

Originally Posted by: North Sea Snow Convection

Hopefully that pleasant quiet warm October weather indicated this morning in various sources becomes a reality   Pressure high over Greenland giving cold wet weather is useless in October and as a pattern means nothing for the winter in terms of snow etc So hopefully the high over europe dominates and the low pressure stays in the atlantic to avoid any repeat of this weeks type of weather.

In respect of those possibilities as shown by computer models, the METO update is disappointing however in expecting mostly unsettled weather to prevail other than a brief quieter period late next week in southern and eatern parts

Hmm, I'm not sure. I think continued northern blocking would be a good sign rather than a bad one!

As Stormchaser points out though, it doesn't necessarily mean we're not going to get a warm/dry spell.

I'm more than happy to see high pressure to our north in a couple of months and more time for sure For the short term I'm happy for some pleasant warm weather - although I'm not sure that is what we are going to get. Stormchaser might well be right.

Edited by user 28 September 2012 15:53:53(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chilly and blocked 12Z a major change from the warm southerlies.... or is it? the smallest of differences have a large bearing over what the weather will be like over the next week, if Nadine gets caught up in the jet stream, this will reinforce the Euro high high and leave us in very warm southerlies carrying large rainfall totals in Northern areas were Atlantic air meets the much warmer tropical air.

If Nadine stays in the Atlantic and stalls the high over greenland will take control and lead to a very blocked pattern over the NH.

I hope it's the latter

The 12Z does follow the 00z ECM and also with Met offices long range forecasts in september... bring on the loopy jet

GFS 12z shows the problem I highlight in the video. Its hard to sustain pressure over the Continent with high pressure over Greenland.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas

12z GFS is indicating a chance that things may become cold

EDIT: Take a look at FI. Northern blocking and southerly tracking lows like the glo-sea mean chart

What happened to your coldest September since 1994 prediction?

Check out the CET threand Matty from page 7 onwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png?6767676767

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png?6767676767

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png?6767676767

Mild bump is still there though not as warm and quite wet at times to into FI.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas

12z GFS is indicating a chance that things may become cold

EDIT: Take a look at FI. Northern blocking and southerly tracking lows like the glo-sea mean chart

What happened to your coldest September since 1994 prediction?

I think he is going to be right....

I don't. 30c this weekend

Good evening. Here is the latest rundown of the output from the big three tonight.

All models continue to show the theme as has been projected on previous runs of Low pressure moving in from the NW following a ridge of High pressure which gives a settled day for many tomorrow. The Low moves only slowly East between Sunday and Wednesday passing near Northern scotland and becoming quite complex. the general theme would be one of sunshine and showers but troughs embedded in the flow would deliver more prolonged spells of rain, particularly towards midweek. Winds will be fresh and cool from a Westerly point throughout this phase.

GFS then takes the Low pressure slowly East towards the end of the week with a cool High pressure area developing over the UK for the weekend. A fair weekend with sunny spells would be likely for all with mist and fog problems night and morning with a touch of frost possible too. In FI tonight the High pressure slips away SE quickly as a sliding frontal wave slips across the South with a band of rain in tow. a sharp temperature gradient would develop over Britain as High pressure ridges down from the NW with a raw Easterly breeze. The end of the run sees High pressure dominant to the North with shallow Low pressure offering rain at times in the South. With High pressures from northern latitudes any clear skies would result in widespread air frost in the North especially.

The GFS Ensembles show the operational as a cold outlier for Northern areas at the end of the run. 850's alternate just above and below the long term mean and all areas will see some rain at times over the period.

The Jet Stream will continue to stream west to east over the Atlantic and the British Isles for the next week or so before GFS shows a sharp weakening and breaking up of the flow towards the end of next week.

UKMO for noon on Thursday shows low pressure over Scandinavia with a slackening westerly flow over the UK as a ridge moves slowly towards the UK from the West. A basically showery setup would see these more restricted to Northern and Eastern parts.

ECM shows a band of Low pressure from Scandinavia to the Atlantic at 144hrs with a showery and unstable Westerly flow continuing for a while. As the days pass winds back more towards the South in response to High pressure building to the SE and East pulling warm Southerly winds up across the UK. An East/West split is likely to develop in the strong Southerly flow as Low pressure deepens to the West threatening thundery rain to Western areas later while Eastern areas stay dry, bright and rather warm.

In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying basically unsettled for the next week with showers or longer spells of rain at times in brisk Westerly winds. Laterly the weather could become drier and an interesting division is shown tonight between GFS and ECM. GFS shows a cold incursion of High pressure while ECM keeps High pressure to the East drawing up a warm Southerly feed and although a large High sets up over Scandi at the end of the run the weather looks like breaking down slowly from the SW.