The ECM 12z op has me feeling a bit concerned about the flooding potential next week. Having troughing over the UK and cool uppers can deliver very large rainfall amounts on a local or regional scale from slow moving systems, but troughing close to our west and throwing shortwaves across us can produce very large amounts on a country-wide or even national scale, with November 2009 being the most prominent example in my mind.

There seems to be some uncertainty regarding the balance between blocking across Greenland and blocking to our NE. Small adjustments in that balance have large implications for the UK. I dislike how the blocking to our NE dissipates quite rapidly on the ECM 12z run, meaning that we lose the support for transient height rises from the south and the heat that could come with that.

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Take your pick;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Hmmm, do you mean take your pick or possibly take your cherry pick? You have picked the only moment in the next ten days when it briefly drops below average? http://www.wetterzentral...s/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wetterzentral.../pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wetterzentral...ics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png Otherwise though pretty wet at times it doesn't look cool of any sort?

Quite right. Worthy of the  symbol but not the 

I suppose if you've got a reputation to keep up then those are the only charts Duane can post 

Beest wait a day or so - I don't think the current indicatations for next week are at all reliable and more changes will occur over the weekend.

Originally Posted by: North Sea Snow Convection

Still lots of playing around with the low pressure to the west of the UK next week. Overnight GFS operational has overcooked the midweek low against the mean ensemble agreement. ECM operational has pulled the low back a little further west and is closer to the ECM mean ensemble agreement, which has the low slightly further west still.

The general theme favours the SE, as would be the norm in our summer climate. It's far from settled but the orientation of the LP appears to indicate some acceptable and at times warm weather down here. Further NW it won't be particularly great though

A major rainfall event looks possible Wednesday/Thursday;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1144.png

Edited by user 11 August 2012 10:46:14(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

For cloud seeding operations you need aircraft and I haven't seen evidence of any flying over.

Edited by user 11 August 2012 17:25:50(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

After any rain/showers have cleared, it settles down and warms up for a while. Could be a plummy weekend coming up?

According to the GFS 12z operational run:

The first day of the new week will a mix of frontal rain and showers, the former dominating the west and north while the SE sees the latter. Temperatures are warm in the SE (just above average) but average or a bit below that elsewhere. Overnight, the front pushes east but fragments somewhat.

Despite the front being to the east on Tuesday, the warm air is still across England, so the day is warm throughout the country. The eastern reaches of Wales are also warm, the rest nearer average. Remaining areas are near average to a bit below, but its showers that dominate the scene rather than frontal rain.

Wednesday sees things getting a bit mental, as a deep low swings in from the southwest and scoops up a load of warm air. As it gets wrapped in and meets cooler air, massive rains result, forming a very intense frontal system that rages northward (excuse by theatrical tone!), the warm air being cleared away for the time being. The rain supresses maximums and  yet temperatures are shown to hold up near 20°C across the south, having reached a couple of degrees higher just before the rain arrived.

Overnight, the winds reach severe gale force in the southwest of England and Wales. The strong winds then spread northward up the western coasts, weakening a bit but still bringing gale force winds to a wide area.

Thursday sees a frontal boundary blighting western Wales and Northern Ireland, while the rest of the UK is somewhat windy and with a few well scattered showers. Temps still manage to reach close to average in the east of England while being very supressed in the western areas of Wales and Scotland.

An area of heavy frontal rain moves through the south overnight, hitting the Solent region hardest and the SE not much at all.

Friday sees showers mostly in the southwest but also some warm temperatures for England in particular (away from the SW), thanks to the storm system having backed away west and with height rises to the east. On the flip side, Scotland is shown to have rather cool temps.

The weekend then sees a strong plume event with temps probably breaking 30°C in favoured locations. Uppers exceed 20°C in the far SE on Sunday.

All week, overnight temps range from the mid teens to around twenty degrees in the far SE on Saturday night.

So there you go Why have I been so detailed here? Well, because the run detailed is one of the most interesting and exciting runs I've ever seen in summer

It will be interesting to look back on this and see how well it verifies.