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The June Prediction Game 2012
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RobSnowman Offline
#21 Posted : 15 June 2012 14:22:09(UTC)
RobSnowman

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Thanks for the update SC. The lack of high temps may be why it dropped down the pages.
Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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DTHFCJ Offline
#22 Posted : 15 June 2012 22:31:25(UTC)
DTHFCJ

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Location: south east wales,heads of the valleys

i knew i should have gone with 1060mm of rain this month

Dean
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RobSnowman Offline
#23 Posted : 16 June 2012 21:15:33(UTC)
RobSnowman

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Yep going to be well out on those rainfall totals too.
Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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picturesareme Offline
#24 Posted : 20 June 2012 06:53:50(UTC)
picturesareme

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I must be quite close with the sunshine predictions lol
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Stormchaser Offline
#25 Posted : 22 June 2012 09:25:47(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

If that plume scenario comes around then with a bit of luck next week might finally see 15°C 850hPa temps and 25°C at 2m somewhere in the UK.

 

BUT I'm going to be on holiday from Monday afternoon and with no access to the internet!

Therefore I'm wondering if anybody would like to temporarily take up my role, keeping an eye on things and noting down when the conditions for each category are seen, if at all?


Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants Just under 10 miles south of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland
2013's Extremes to Date IMBY:
T-Max: 21.1 31st May | T-Min: -4.7 14th Mar | Wettest Day: 21.0mm 16th Mar | Ice Days: 5 | Days with wind gusts over 60mph: 0 (1 55mph)|Dry 15th Feb-5th March! Spring 2013 breaks my coldest mean temp. record by 1.86*C! Year to date is coldest by 0.54*C.
Keep Calm and Forecast On
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Stormchaser Offline
#26 Posted : 23 June 2012 13:10:50(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

Bumping the thread here and repeating the question:

I'm wondering if anybody would like to temporarily take up my role, keeping an eye on things and noting down when the conditions for each category are seen, if at all?

 

Without help this competition will have to be cancelled for this month.

 

Speaking of which, I'm not going to be able to run a July competition due to my holiday - sorry folks! If anyone else wants to run it for July, be my guest

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants Just under 10 miles south of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland
2013's Extremes to Date IMBY:
T-Max: 21.1 31st May | T-Min: -4.7 14th Mar | Wettest Day: 21.0mm 16th Mar | Ice Days: 5 | Days with wind gusts over 60mph: 0 (1 55mph)|Dry 15th Feb-5th March! Spring 2013 breaks my coldest mean temp. record by 1.86*C! Year to date is coldest by 0.54*C.
Keep Calm and Forecast On
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RobSnowman Offline
#27 Posted : 23 June 2012 21:24:24(UTC)
RobSnowman

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Hi SC, I don't think I'll be able to do this as I'm working all this week. However, if you post the links you use to check the remaining variables we could between the rest of us review the situation at the end of each day and work out a winner from there.

I may set up a July competition using the same variables as you did in June, but I'd have to leave all the graphics and point scoring for someone else.

Anyone any suggestions.
Whatever happens have a good holiday SC. Where are you off to?
Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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Stormchaser Offline
#28 Posted : 23 June 2012 22:04:46(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

Thanks Rob, I'm headed to Menorca and I'm sure it will be a fine holiday indeed hopefully I can help waft some of the heat up to the UK

 

You suggest a good way forward so here are some links...

I use the climate-uk site (http://www.climate-uk.com/) for the rainfall and sunshine figures. Hopefully it will update with the final figures early next month - it's been unchanged for over a week now but updates have mostly been frequent so far this year.

Determining the highest and lowest temperatures and tracking when the first 28°C and first 30°C occur involves checking the Met Office's UK extremes each day, which I prefer to do using the old version of the site (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_latest_weather.html). I like to keep a log of those, and the figures for the SE region alone, so if anyone can do that while I'm away I'll really appreciate it

Just in case the plume of heat doesn't deliver any of its potential next week, the highest temperature so far this month has been a measly 23.3C (in Northolt). As for the lowest temperature, that currently stands at -3.5°C (seen on 5th June).

Checking for the first Estofex warning logically means looking at their site each day. Thursday looks promising at the moment

Finally, to for the first 15°C uppers across the UK, my method is to look at the GFS charts from T+0 to T+24 hours each day; if the uppers are progged to reach 15°C that day then I take that as gospel and declare that to be the day the category was met

 

I realise that many of you lead busy lives and would find it a challenge to conduct these observations, so it;s entirely up to you whether you do so or not. I find it takes me about 3 minutes each day, but then I'm used to it

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants Just under 10 miles south of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland
2013's Extremes to Date IMBY:
T-Max: 21.1 31st May | T-Min: -4.7 14th Mar | Wettest Day: 21.0mm 16th Mar | Ice Days: 5 | Days with wind gusts over 60mph: 0 (1 55mph)|Dry 15th Feb-5th March! Spring 2013 breaks my coldest mean temp. record by 1.86*C! Year to date is coldest by 0.54*C.
Keep Calm and Forecast On
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DTHFCJ Offline
#29 Posted : 24 June 2012 11:34:46(UTC)
DTHFCJ

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Location: south east wales,heads of the valleys

hi Stormchaser,hope you have a great holiday..and dont forget to bring back some of that beautiful weather that you are more or less guaranteed

 

i will try to sort something and keep the competition going,it wont be as good as yours but il give it go

Dean
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Stormchaser Offline
#30 Posted : 24 June 2012 14:03:32(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: DTHFCJ Go to Quoted Post

hi Stormchaser,hope you have a great holiday..and dont forget to bring back some of that beautiful weather that you are more or less guaranteed

 

i will try to sort something and keep the competition going,it wont be as good as yours but il give it go

Thanks, and thanks

I'd be great to return with some fine weather for the UK, perhaps if I try to shove some of it into a bag... but you know they wouldn't allow it on the plane

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants Just under 10 miles south of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland
2013's Extremes to Date IMBY:
T-Max: 21.1 31st May | T-Min: -4.7 14th Mar | Wettest Day: 21.0mm 16th Mar | Ice Days: 5 | Days with wind gusts over 60mph: 0 (1 55mph)|Dry 15th Feb-5th March! Spring 2013 breaks my coldest mean temp. record by 1.86*C! Year to date is coldest by 0.54*C.
Keep Calm and Forecast On
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DTHFCJ Offline
#31 Posted : 24 June 2012 17:52:55(UTC)
DTHFCJ

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Location: south east wales,heads of the valleys

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: DTHFCJ Go to Quoted Post

hi Stormchaser,hope you have a great holiday..and dont forget to bring back some of that beautiful weather that you are more or less guaranteed

 

i will try to sort something and keep the competition going,it wont be as good as yours but il give it go

Thanks, and thanks

I'd be great to return with some fine weather for the UK, perhaps if I try to shove some of it into a bag... but you know they wouldn't allow it on the plane

go on Stormchaser im sure you can smuggle in a couple of high pressures!!

Dean
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DTHFCJ Offline
#32 Posted : 26 June 2012 23:53:23(UTC)
DTHFCJ

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Location: south east wales,heads of the valleys

we have a new max high.26/06/12

24.6c,gravesend

and that should be topped up again today and tomorrow

estofex level 1 issued tues 26th june@ 23.13,for period...weds 27th june-thurs 28th june

edit...looking back through the thread i see the estofex part of the competion is already sorted 

15c uppers,27/06/2012....Init:wed 27june2012 00z-valid thur28june2012 12z

Edited by user 27 June 2012 08:46:15(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Dean
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DTHFCJ Offline
#33 Posted : 27 June 2012 08:52:20(UTC)
DTHFCJ

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Location: south east wales,heads of the valleys

also Stormchaser im keeping a record of the figures for the southeast region for you.

Dean
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Weatherfan2 Offline
#34 Posted : 27 June 2012 11:40:26(UTC)
Weatherfan2

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Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 62
Location: Buxton, England

Hilarious to look back at this thread and now to see the reality of how bad June ended up. Barely managed to get above 20 degrees anywhere let alone 25 degrees and no widespread storm outbreaks (estofex warnings don't count, they are only predictions) oh and three times the average rainfall and oh half the average sun!!What a laugh.

Edited by user 27 June 2012 11:41:11(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

2010: -11.0°C (20/12) / 26.6°C (23/05) / 3 thunderstorms
2011: -5.3°C (29/01) / 26.6°C (27/06) / 1 thunderstorm
2012: -7.3°C (08/02) / 25.8°C (24/05) / 1 thunderstorm
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four Offline
#35 Posted : 27 June 2012 11:45:11(UTC)
four

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Mean here is just 11.3C and highest max 18.5 (Yesterday)

North York Moors weather | Webcam (not always on)
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DTHFCJ Offline
#36 Posted : 27 June 2012 11:55:55(UTC)
DTHFCJ

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Location: south east wales,heads of the valleys

Originally Posted by: Weatherfan2 Go to Quoted Post

Hilarious to look back at this thread and now to see the reality of how bad June ended up. Barely managed to get above 20 degrees anywhere let alone 25 degrees and no widespread storm outbreaks (estofex warnings don't count, they are only predictions) oh and three times the average rainfall and oh half the average sun!!What a laugh.

I agree with you 110% june has been horrendous..full stop..im not holding my breath for july either...maybe this year for a change when the kids break up it will improve

Dean
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DTHFCJ Offline
#37 Posted : 27 June 2012 11:58:05(UTC)
DTHFCJ

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Location: south east wales,heads of the valleys

Originally Posted by: four Go to Quoted Post

Mean here is just 11.3C and highest max 18.5 (Yesterday)

as i look out the window Four i can feel your pain thats...well cant put it onto words tbh....its been drizzle here for more or less 48 hrs..and the rest of the month i can count on 1 hand the amount of dry days we have had

Dean
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RobSnowman Offline
#38 Posted : 27 June 2012 20:35:28(UTC)
RobSnowman

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Well we may squeeze 25c tomorrow...but it isn't much consolation!
Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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DTHFCJ Offline
#39 Posted : 28 June 2012 16:31:19(UTC)
DTHFCJ

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Location: south east wales,heads of the valleys

New high for yesterday..@Shawbury...24.8

looks like that will be beaten today quite easily....and most probably for the last time this month

Dean
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DTHFCJ Offline
#40 Posted : 29 June 2012 11:08:26(UTC)
DTHFCJ

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Location: south east wales,heads of the valleys

28.6C 28 June....Gravesend...."gravesend" a good way to finish off whats been a wet cool and at times very dangerous month mostly bar the odd day here and there thats been decent..here and there

Dean
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