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Anyway, the signs of improvement remain tentative to say the least. I think I'll wait to see what happens as the weekends low exits before writing another chapter
Yes, that long summary just before the close of the previous thread is a very accurate one in terms of how things look realistically ahead atm. The "improvement" needs to be seen indeed in terms of relative to the pattern to now. And at this stage it is uncertain how much of one there is. Some signs of a re-arrangement of pressure systems with pressure falling over Greenland - but no sign at all of pressure rising in our vicinity to prevent further rain and downpours over the UK. Possibly it might simply add up to a continued "slightly less" unsettled pattern but still with lows approaching us.. simply from a different part of the atlantic instead...
Edited by user 12 June 2012 21:04:11(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
The MetO 10 day and 30 day are both worse than yesterday so talk of any likely improvement is very premature IMO, I often see phantom 'highs' in the GFS abd ECM output but until its on the MetO 10 dayer I dont bite.
I was in London today and Oh dear what a terible day it was, its the first time ever the car thermometer rose as I drove north out of the Capital!
Indeed, the temperature at home at 9pm was 3c higher than that in London at 3pm, for a summers day in the Capital it was dire.
However, Friday could be even worse.
Andy
Dear God - really.
Looks pretty wet and wild on Friday morning especially in Wales and the north west if this is right.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7574/gfs-0-54_muv9.png
But possibly more pleasant by the middle of next week if not earlier.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5826/gfs-0-186_tno5.png
And more pleasant as we move into the wekend after next.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7593/gfs-0-252_vwg2.png
Midsummer looking good.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5329/gfs-0-276_exw2.png
They better be as I will be off next week so summery weather need to get going again as summer season stated.
ECM still showing the improvement - finally! The LP's tracking to the North which is where they should be.
[quote=Steam Fog;342125]00z GFS looks like offering a decent week from next Tuesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png[/quote]
Temps around averge but no heatwave.
Don't think I suggested there was going to be?
These are of course notoriously unreliable at this range, but at this stage (and for a while now) GFS has been suggesting that Friday morning could be especially wet in the north west.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8940/gfs-2-54_zek9.png
It will be very wet everywhere on Friday as the rainband pushes north.
Edited by user 13 June 2012 08:35:16(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
NAEFS continues to paint a strong s greenland anomoly as we approach the end of june. how we become settled and warm with that is an interesting sypnotic/teleconnetic challenge. i think the best we can hope for is a weakish west based -nao with shallow depressions moving sw to ne across just to the nw of the uk. that would mean a nw/se split, though nowhere being settled, just the se being less unsettled. not a cold outlook but not a particularly warm one either.
So in other words an improvement. Had anyone actually forecast a heatwave? In any event, they can stay away, the girls in my office refuse to have the aircon on so the last one was unbearable.
Last month warm weather was not hot enough to use air-conditioning, it only designed for temps well over 30C but some abuse it and use it at low 20's temps outside. No air con needed from the latest model runs and like today I am using the sun to warm the flat up nicely to 24.3C to store the warmth for Friday sunless day.
Well it was 28/29 degrees on a few days in London last month and that is way, way too hot to work in IMO! But back to the models.
Nice to hear you are seeing the sun down south but totally overcast up here again.
Friday will be wet everywhere but it will be a lot wetter in the West and North. Also a secondary low looks to develop and move NE across the country sunday/Monday, that has the potential to deliver quite a bit more rain.
Not sure what people are seeing when they talk of improvement next week - temperatures look largely average and there could be a fair bit if rain around except it will be from slow moving showers rather than frontal rain. I guess poor is an improvement from diabolical though.
Perhaps folk mean the SE will see better weather rather than the UK?
Edited by user 13 June 2012 13:20:37(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
If you are after an improvement in the weather dont read the MetO updated 10 dayer, its a disaster!
Unsettled on Monday and Tuesday, with showers or longer spells of rain. The most persistent rain likely in the north, though also possible in the southeast on Monday, where it will turn less showery on Tuesday. Elsewhere, a few showers, but a little less unsettled than of late. Temperatures slightly below average. Breezy on Monday, especially in the south and west. Wednesday to Friday remain changeable, though northwestern parts seeing the most frequent showers and persistent rain, a little drier and brighter in the southeast, though a low risk of some thundery showers spreading from the continent at times. The rest of the period unsettled for most, with the southeast starting quiet, but showers returning more widely later. Temperatures below average, but perhaps nearer normal in the southeast.
Updated: 1152 on Wed 13 Jun 2012
It basically says after a few drier days in the south east later next week the whole period is cool and unsettled.
They certainly dont buy the ECM solution and neither do I.
This June could easily go down as the worst since 1972.......Oh dear
Edited by user 13 June 2012 15:01:01(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
I love Air con and wanted to have it installed at the end of May when the heat made the west facing bedroom uncomfortable.
I was about to order it then saw the model runs and decided not to bother, much to the relief of the wife.
When I am abroad the air con comes on as soon as it reaches 21c