The GFS 6z operational is very unsettled throughout with a succession of low pressure areas rolling into the UK although the pattern is quite slack at times. Given the high solar input levels I would expect a lot of rain in the next 2 weeks with the atmosphere so unstable
Yes, looks like 2012 is going to provide yet another June Monsoon, at least for the next week or two. Its coming earlier than in some of our previous summers and maybe the signals for improvement later in the month will bear out the thought that sometimes this bodes better for the rest of summer.
However for the foreseeable future a fair amount of unpalatable weather to get through (depending on one's preferences) and that is borne out by a quite hideous 6 to 15 day Met Office update - shades of summer 2007 and 2009 about the type of upcoming weather
GP on NW suggessting the trough backs westwards in the seconf half of June drawing up som hot air/plumes from the south. Guess we'll see but im still hopeful this summer could be hot
Well his summer forecast is due out today so no doubt it will show there also. lets hope this one doesnt go awry as quickly as last years did. at least winter was a pretty decent effort.
the updated meto 30 dayer seems to reflect what happened in may. allowing for their cautious approach to call a change to something better, the pulling back of the trough could well be on the agenda though maybe this time with the blocking further south allowing a warmer flow for the uk.
i was hoping this would happen just after mid month. looking at the mean jet position, it maybe a little later than this.
I will be off from mid-June so hopefully it will turn out very warm to very hot like we had last month. For now seeing unsettled weather to mid June is a very long time and severely wasting our valuable long daylight hours. Don't mind if unsettled for few days like Toronto getting now, got 34.7mm of rain yesterday followed by more sunny days from Tue onward.
GFS shows a distinctly unsettled week to come with ahowers or longer spells of rain at times with fresh cool winds and temperatures much on the cool side, especially in the rain. In the second week things are little better with a trough near the UK encouraging showers or more prolonged rain at times and continuing cool conditions. The Ensembles are pretty depressing with the mean no better than normal and some large rain spikes from some members too.
UKMO shows plenty of wet weather too, especially in the South innitially and everywhere later through the week. With low pressure close too or over the UK compounding large cloud amounts temperatures would be suppressed especially when coupled with the fresh breeze.
ECM looks decidedly unsettled too with charts more reminescent of early Autumn than June bringing rain, cool temperatures and strong winds at times with just brief drier, brighter breaks. By day 10 things look little different with a large Low over the UK continuing the unsettled, often wet theme.
In Summary the output looks about as unsettled as things can for this time of year with the Atlantic in total control bringing periods of rain and showers and a cool wind for al lareas over the next few weeks.
The model output keeps deteriorating through each day at the moment. Awful is a generous word to descibe the outlook for the next ten days or so. Huge contrast about to arrive to the glorious deep blue skies, refreshing easterly breeze and sunshine of this time last week. As said above, the charts for next week and beyond are more reminiscent of Autumn and would bring unpleasant enough weather then, let alone June
Due to greater temperature contrasts this will bring worse and potentially more disruptive weather than May. Wednesday to Friday period to be watched in this regard with some nasty conditions possible in the south especially. Lets hope that this terrible pattern shifts away from the UK asap
Now best to try and forget about the upcoming weather and make the best of the bank holiday (at least today)...despite the heavy rain later!
I've been used to viewing the Meto fax charts on Meteociel (at http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0 )
but I've found when coming back after a holiday break that they are no longer updated, and are showing charts from March. Has anyone else noticed this, and could point me to another location for the fax charts? Many thanks, Angus
http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html#00 there you go.
I have noticed in recent Junes that the MO looks bad a few days out but the reality looks not quite so bad as the days approach. Looks like this week is the other way round.
Normal bank holiday weekend this year was lovely, this one looks a write off from thbis evening onwards. You could not make it up.
If it doesn't hang around for too long, then the exciting nature of the developments will make up for the frequent rain. I reckon maximum temperatures will be highly variable even on a local scale, as a result of the positioning of frontal rain bands and of course shower developments. As the lows look to sweep NE through the UK, the frontal rain will be moving with a fair bit of pace each time, but it should pack a real punch.
Looking ahead and IMO, the signs of a pattern shift are stronger this morning (although the GEFS are less convincing than they were before, but that's an exception), with the shift once more looking likely around the middle part of the month. The CFS daily (1 month) 18z run from yesterday showed mostly fine, sometimes hot weather dominating from 17 June. I wonder what the 00z will come up with...
By the way, you folks can be confident in some fine weather during the final week of June, because I'm jetting off to Menorca for a fortnight
Nice summary GIBBY.
Very unsettled period of weather coming up although its is normal for June for this to happen.
I agree with previous posters the outlook is dire.
And has the footprint of june last year.
I dont think i could hav epicked a worse 2weeks to be off if i tried.
I pull them down and format on the chart viewer page here:
I thought i might add some discussion for the Euro's starting on Fri in Poland/Ukraine as i have a couple of freids travelling out on Wed and its looking warm and then progressively hotter as we go through the end of next week with a plume of warm air pushing up through central Europe .As is normally the case when a trough is sat over or near us the mainland just roasts,looking ggod.
Surely that's bad news for England, although at least we don't have any daytime games coming up? The 5pm kickoffs could pose a problem if we do get a heatwave out there though?
Meanwhile, I like my sunny weather, but the hot spell was too fierce down here and hard to work in. More, the garden has been parched due to the hosepipe ban so I'm pretty relaxed about the upcoming wet/unsettled spell. Looking forward to watching the rains come from tonight, while models and teleconnections point to a warm up from mid-month onwards, with the gardens revived and hopefully the hosepipe ban rescinded!
That's very true - however, my intial gut feeling a couple of months ago was that we might be in for a somewhat better summer than the past 5 years - a few weeks ago I was then having doubts - this sudden deteriorartion and the forecast for this next week or so is now raising serious doubts.