The warmer, drier solution all looked well backed by the ensembles
Summer is coming
London ensembles starting to firm up on a new hot spell for the first week of June. Some runs are not far of 20c in FI
Edited by user 24 May 2012 10:56:14(UTC)
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850s becoming hot as we start June.
Looks good to me.
I agree Joe,the meto update isn't really very inspiring again though,they are talking about heavy thundery downpours next week and unsettled weather thereafter.
Clearly,they have little confidence in the lovely dry warm extended outlook painted by UKMO/ECM/GF06Z today.
Maybe they know something we don't?
It's a strange one, but if the other models are firming up on the warmer. drier outlook the Met Office extended forcast should fall in to line Shouldn't it?
So far this year the Met Office have been stubborn on several occasions, only changing their outlook after several days of contrary model output. I guess they like to play it safe, although they have adjusted the 6-15 day outlook to describe a setup with high pressure close to the SE... that said it reflects the solution found by the GFS 00z more than the other model runs or the GFS 06z. If the 12z runs are in agreement on something like the ECM 00z then we'll see a change tomorrow I would have thought.
Speaking oif the GFS 06z run, it's taken a great big step towards the outlook of the other models but it's still very keen on retrogressing heights NW. We don't do too badly out of it on this particular run but UKMO/ECM offer something hotter which in my books makes it far more interesting, especially given the potential for thunderstorms next week
Still working on Sunday's run of the ensembles when ECM did have a poorer outlook. Will be updated today so maybe a more inspiring report tomorrow.
I doubt it. Look at the Met Office extended forecast from May 9:
UK Outlook for Thursday 24 May 2012 to Thursday 7 Jun 2012:
Conditions are most likely to start off rather unsettled with showers or spells of rain, especially towards the north and west but with drier and brighter spells at times. Rainfall amounts are likely to be at least around average in many areas, and perhaps above average in northwestern areas. Mean temperatures are more likely to be below average than above average at first, but there are some indications that southern and eastern areas will become warmer, drier and sunnier by the end of May. Most evidence suggests that if we do get a more prolonged spell of relatively warm, dry weather, this is more likely to occur during the early part of June.
That looks pretty wide of the mark. As did the one issued right at the end of April:
Changeable weather is likely for much of this period. Showers or longer spells of rain are likely to affect most parts of the UK although rainfall totals are likely to be close to the seasonal average. Between the rain and showers, there should also be some drier and brighter interludes with sunshine levels also close to the May average. With winds often from a north or northeasterly direction, temperatures are likely to be close to or just below the seasonal average, but they could be a little above in any sheltered western areas at times.
The Met Office extended forecasts are far from infallible - they really didn't pick up on this week's warm spell.
Edited by user 24 May 2012 13:28:06(UTC)
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Because they have access to far more data than any of use ge to see including the ECM 32 day and the longer range ECM EMS data sets we don't get to see.
Joe, just had a great 5 days up there, sunny and comfortable and you look like you have hit 23 C today - great for Edinburgh! I'm up again in June, lets hope it stays warm and the Haar stays out to sea!
I could see the big thunderstorm to the SW of Edinburgh beyong the Pentlands as I left on the train at 5pm yesterday
Its 25 C here but very sultry
A warm and humid Met/o 12z with scattered heavy, thundery showers possible.
GFS peels a low off the main Atlantic trough and moves it across us during Wednesday, leading to a wet day in many places and with temps in the mid teens at best for the most part. Then we have a coolish Thursday with a few showers, before high pressure builds in strongly and dominates for much of the FI period - slowly backing west, however, introducing fresher air late on in the run.
UKMO does not send any notable low across us and is actually building heights from the SW on Wednesday. Extrapolation from 144 hours brings the ridge up through the UK, with hot conditions in with a good chance of developing IMO.
So which solution will it be, ECM?
GFS 12z follows the trend and brings HP back over Britain for the BH - certainly starting to look like that is the more likely scenario now ..... Though some uncertainty still on exactly how we get there.
Edited by user 24 May 2012 17:27:08(UTC)
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Certainly knife edge stuff as to whether the Atlantic makes inroads but even on GFS its a very tempory affair as the ridging Azores high brings a stunning start to June.
The 12z ensembles are pretty keen to make the Azores high a major player as we head through the 1st week of June.
Maybe my 2weeks off from the 31st will see some nice weather afterall.
One caveat though is we certainly do not want to see a further adjustment of the Atlantic east.
All in all there surely has to be a move from the ukmo outlook tomorrow as the prospect of cool showery weather is plainly not on offer again today.
It has to be said the metoffice can and have in the past been stubborn to the point of bewilderment in their extended forecasts.
Watch the ecm 12z revery back to the northerly this eveing.
My impression is they rely pretty heavily on the EC32 for their 30 day outlook.
As far as I know it updates twice a week on Monday and Friday.
Not sure about Monday, but last Friday apparently had low pressure reasserting itself mid June which was doubtless reflected in the Met Office forecast.
Guess we'll see how it looks after the update tomorrow (and of course it will still be a mid to long term forecast so subject to all the usual caveats).
Great output tonight.
All 3 models bringing the Azores high into play with a stalling trough in the Atlantic.
Can only mean 1 thing.......
GFS looks distinctly summery on its 12z tonight. After a somewhat increased risk of thundery downpours early next week in association with slack upper troughs a cool down is shown to be temporary before a setup that is often responsible for our most prolonged summer spells develops. High pressure settles down near NW Britain and anchors over the UK for the majority of FI. Should it verify this setup would deliver clear and sunny weather for days on end with temperatures comfortably in the 70's away from North Sea coasts. The ensembles for London show a mostly settled picture with the long term mean mostly above normal apart from a day or two at the crossover of the month. It should be noted too that a handful of runs support uppers of 15C over London which could result in very hot conditions.
UKMO shows conditions becoming very slack after saturday with warm air continuing and a lot of dry weather though some thundery showers are likely in the SW late Sunday/ Monday and perhaps elsewhere for a while. No real breakdown looks imminent from the 144hr chart.
ECM tonight shows a very warm week next week with the risk of thundery showers at times though once more no widespread breakdown looks likely. Some very high temperatures look possible for Southern and Eastern areas later.
In Summary it looks like a warm couple of weeks coming up. Apart from a few caveats in the shape of the risk of thundery showers there seems little chance of a major breakdown to the current spell tonight. GFS notably develops a synoptic situation which as shown would deliver a long and settled spell. It was noted by a few earlier that the Mets outlook issued lunchtime today does not represent the charts being shown. I think tomorrow may see a big change in the 15 day update.
Edited by user 24 May 2012 19:11:28(UTC)
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Excellent post Martin.The 0z runs in conjunction with the meto update will be telling tomorrow.They surely cannot go on ignoring the global models.
I notice Glacier over on NW now ramping up the duration of the warmth as we hit June.
Anyone seen YD?
Taking at look at the rather general picture you get from these charts.
The coming week looks drier than average, the week after drier still.
So bumper time for recession busting BBQ sales!