I see that *****is still adamant that this May will be "between the coldest in 100 years and the 5th coldest in 100 years" - meaning a CET of 9.8c or lower.http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9619I'll be surprised if it's more than the 15th coldest in 100 years, and it may even end up only being the coldest since 2010
Edited by user 16 May 2012 12:44:18(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
In a lot of ways - it feels worse than this.
http://climate-uk.com/
But its bad enough.
If it feels worse than those statistics suggest then it must truly have been dire up there so far this month! Down here in Pompey it's not been great but it could have been so much worse; the last few days have had decent amounts of sunshine and rainfall isn't far from the average. The temperatures have often been dissapointing though.
Last year starting to look like a blip in a falling trend:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif
In spite of your love of AGW, even you may need to soon face up to the reality of the cooling climate
Thanks GW. It's an interesting statistic that this Spring will still have been warmer than every single Spring of the 1970s!
To be honest, I'm old enough to remember the springs of the second half of the 1970s, and I can't ever remember prolonged warm weather in Spring like we have had in recent years. I do remember Summer 1976 though.
This is what I have been telling people. On average this Spring will likely end up pretty normal. It's just that April and May so far have been that bad we've already forgotton the gloroius March.
Daft comment which detracts from a good thread.
Thanks GW.
Amazing how warm the springs have become. A warm spell is part and parcel of spring these days.
1962 looks very cold; didn't 1963 have a really cold March after the cold winter?
I think with this year, we were so spoilt by the weather in March that our expectations for what might come were too high and that made the April weather a bigger disappointment. May hasn't been too bad here.
First look at the CET out to the end of the month. A lot of uncertainty in the models at the moment so things will no doubt change again but at present there are signs of something quite warm in the latter part of the month.
My CET estimate currently stands at just 9.05C. A slow rise over the next 4 days before a potentially much bigger rise which on current output could get us as high as 10.7C.
Yes, a much warmer outlook and potential for the CET to see a significant rise between now and the month end. Light at the end of the tunnel, so fingers crossed this comes off!
My 11.5c guess isn't looking quite as daft now!
Edited by user 18 May 2012 08:44:44(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
My 10.5C CET forecast guess is looking good now.
To 09.00 today:
Tan Hill 4.2c
Here it stands at 7.63c, which is 3.27c overall down on the full month of May 2011 the next week or so should close the gap somewhat
Edited by user 18 May 2012 13:58:09(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Over the past couple of weeks I've been thinking your guess forecast isn't far off the mark. Now, I'm thinking you and I could be at equidistance from the mark! Then we'll both be happy bunnies!
I was 0.2C off the mark last time Caz. I reckon on the basis of GWs forecasts and estimates it maybe the same result again. It would be good to get a bang on target figure - you get a lot of points for that. Anyway. It's all good fun.
Indeed it is all good fun and it's a good job too otherwise I might as well give up this year! I really wish you good luck but I'm starting to believe it could go higher and I won't complain if it does get up to 11c!
Glad i guessed 11.0C as it may well stop my total error incresing too much, and I may get to beat Caz. But the settled weather may change that yet!
Same here Caz - I hate the cold. The warmer it gets the better if you ask me.
I was hoping any warmth would wait until June. My brave CET forecast for May () might be sunk by a pesky warm spell right at the death.
I'd been hoping that a lot of the play-it-safe 'I'll go about average' wallers would be torpedoed this month. Damn.
7.76c here