The runs continue to look changeable with some pleasant spells especially, in the south with average temps although below at first, but also some showers or rain from time to time.

is the ecm 00z suite onto something ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=1

trough pulled west allowing the euro height rise to influence the uk with a likely nw/se split developing.  modelling at this range currently too inconsistent to draw conclusions yet.

Nearing 15°C with plenty of sun here this afternoon

For the south, the models are showing reasonable conditions for May from now until Monday or Tuesday (GFS 06z has an extra low to make Tuesday a dissapointing affair whereas on the 00z run it was mosty dry but rather cool). The temperatures remain a bit below average, however... but in the sun it feels good nonetheless.

Further north... what can I say... a not bad (but not all that warm) day on Saturday for most, then Scotland sees some rather stormy weather arriving during Sunday afternoon while the rest of the UK escapes with another fairly nice day, that cloud, rain and wind then pushing south but not delivering much to much of England... the mountains mean that Wales gets a more significant amount from it.

High pressure may be on the scene again midweek but low pressure may attack from the southwest - the extent of this and the timing of events remains to be seen. The 06z run then pulls the troughing west in early FI, in line with the ECM ensemble suite signal, delivering a fine spell that turns hot for a few days (well, it'd feel hot...) before we get what could be a high-level thundery breakdown. Perhaps the last 10 days of May will be spent playing a dangerous game with continental plumes and troughing hanging around or passing through Iberia? We'd need a fair bit of luck to get a proper heatwave... but you never know!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Cool and showery Met/o 12z, especially, for Central and Eastern areas. Cool and alittle settled around 144hs but it doesn't look like lasting.

Edited by user 11 May 2012 17:33:17(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Best not to be too pessimistic - despite the downturn on the 12Zs the trend still looks more settled as we head towards the end of May.

I'm not calling a continued deluge until a few more runs go by.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012051112/ECH1-216.GIF?11-0

oh dear!  look at the greenland anomaly again!!!!!!!!!!!!!

S

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012051112/ECH1-216.GIF?11-0

 

oh dear!  look at the greenland anomaly again!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

S

Yep, that screams continued northern blocking until the end of May, could be some very late frosts around up North? very late May / early June 1962ish.

The coronation back in 1953 was held in shocking weather- http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Coronation-Weather.htm,

A cold front brought thunder-showers and a sharp drop in temperature on May 26, and from then until the middle of June the. British Isles lay between high pressure over the Atlantic, usually located somewhere between Ireland and Iceland, and low pressure over the near-continent. As a result the country lay under a very cool and moist northerly airflow throughout this period. June 2 itself was a miserable, November-like day in London as far as the weather was concerned, with dull skies, a chill wind and sporadic outbreaks of rain during the morning, although it dried out gradually later on. The afternoon temperature climbed no higher than 12°C - several degrees lower than the Queen's wedding day in November six years before.

Might be fitting if the weather is similar over the June long weekend 

Edited by user 11 May 2012 21:54:22(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified