Simple question really, anyone care to venture an opinion?
May looks to be disappointing early on, June who knows.
Met Office 3-month Outlook, 23 March 2012: The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.
Edited by user 27 April 2012 21:36:41(UTC)
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My god if April is the most settled of the 3 months, what will May & June bring? 2007?
Because it is very difficult to predict the weather beyond a week.
"They" made this perfectly clear by saying
"This product provides some limited guidance on potential variance from climatology i.e. possible change from what is typical for UK weather.
It is however an emerging and cutting edge area of science and users are encouraged to consult our shorter range and climatological guidance before committing resources or taking action."
I'd think people on a weather forum would understand just how difficult it is to forecast weather, especially in the UK when there are so many variables. We've only to look on the MO thread to see that we can only reliably forecast a few days ahead and we know ourselves just how frustrating it can be when we're waiting for snow or thunder storms that don't actually arrive because a single factor changed or didn't fall into place. So we know that any LR forecast has to be taken with a dose of salts.
Having said that, you'd think the MO would know better by now than to even suggest what we might be in for in a months time, let alone a season, because someone always takes it as gospel!
Slot machines searching for answers funded by millions of our money.
Don't take the forecasts seriously. Your money? Who cares? Not them, for sure.
Edited by user 28 April 2012 07:36:03(UTC)
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Come on, you can do better than that, surely? Have a read up on statistics and you'll see that your question is unreasonable.
The bit you quoted is quite clear: "slightly favours" drier than average conditions and "slightly favours" April being the driest.
The computer gave an uncertain forecast and if, for example, there's a 60% chance of something happening there's still a 40% chance of it not happening. Simple, surely.
Now, if the MetO forecast used words such as "strongly favours" or "is almost certain to be" then you'd have a worthwhile gripe.
Edited by user 28 April 2012 08:34:36(UTC)
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More pertitnent is why is your reading comprehension skill so poor? And why do you not know basic statistics?
But then again, if you look at the rainfall prediction details at the bottom of the pdf link provided on the origina; post, it shows the 30+ individual model runs and out of them only 1 predicts rainfall over 120mm or 4mm/day which it looks as though we will end up with
Interestingly Philip Eden seems to have nailed it almost spot on with his effort
This is what the Met Office 30 day forecast looked like on 24 March (Philip Eden put his forecast out 11 days later on 04 April). It also picked up on the unsettled, cooler and less dry theme.
29/03 to 07/4
"A fine and dry start to the period is expected,with a good deal of sunshine for many areas"
"From the beginning of April, temperatures are likely to return nearer to average across all areas, with some quite chilly nights bringing the possibility of patchy frost. It will also turn more unsettled and windier"
"In the far north, it may be cold enough for showers to turn wintry at times, with some hill snow possible."
08/04 to 22/04
"A generally unsettled period is expected, with winds often from the northwest. Rainfall amounts for the period look to be around average across the UK, with a continuing chance of some wintry showers falling in some far northern areas, mainly on hills. Temperatures will generally be near or a little below average..."
"Despite the predominantly more unsettled theme, there will be some drier interludes, particularly in the south, with further warm sunny spells."
Because slightly favouring one possiblity over another does not mean that it will be right. Even when there is a very strong signal it doesn't necessary follow that it will happen. If you don't understand probabilty, don't read probability forecasts and you won't be disappointed. Simples.As an aside, ********** got it wrong as well
Well it's almost certainly going to be below average rainfall for me this month. Am I the only one?
The last 12 months have seen a plethora of catastrophic long range forecasts from various parties. The "severe" winter foreseen by two well known solar-activity based forecasters was a classic example. Everyone seems too ready to have a swipe at the Met Office when they publish longer range probability based forecasts. True, the barbecue summer debacle will run and run but the record of most other "forecasters" is similarly variable with "shades of '76" ending up as the coolest since '93. It's a tricky game, but isn't that what makes it so fascinating?
But on that basis we would still be holding bits of seaweed up in the air or looking to see if the cows were laying down in the field.
How do you decide when a line of research is worthwhile or worthless?
And they got that one wrong as well, didn't they